Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Wed, Oct 14, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

2-4 · Power #115

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

1-4 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

WKU -1.5

✓ WKU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 27–26 SHSU

✓ WKU (52%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWKU -1.5

CloseWKU -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:18

Western Kentucky at Sam Houston: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 1:37 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -1.5

no move

CloseWKU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -1.5 · unchangedmodel SHSU -2

model SHSU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 49% (191 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWKU -1.5

CloseWKU -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 1.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 16–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 53.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 2.3; 62.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	39–27	W	O49.5
Very close	HAW @ UNM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	21–42	L	O60
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	28–35	L	O49.5
Very close	SHSU @ NMSU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	10–37	L	U52.5
Close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Close	MRSH @ MOST 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	30–24	W	O52.5
Close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	41–30	W	O48
Close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Close	WMU @ EMU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	45–21	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LWWLW	3-3	50%	1-3	1-1
SHSU WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OUOUU	3-3	50%	2-4
SHSU UUOOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SHSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WKU 3–0 SHSU WKU leads · 3 games since 2023 · WKU has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 23 2025	Sam Houston 24 @ Western Kentucky 41	WKU -10.5	WKU W
Oct 16 2024	Western Kentucky 31 @ Sam Houston 14	SHSU -1.5	WKU W
Nov 18 2023	Sam Houston 23 @ Western Kentucky 28	WKU -10	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−7.3 →−13.2▼ 5.9#118

SHSU−20.4 →−13.8▲ 6.6#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WKU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#117

Offense

SHSU better ▶

#100

#115

Defense

SHSU better ▶

#91

−0.7 #121

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.4 #44

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ WKU faster

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	WKU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #112	26.2 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #115	5.53 #81	SHSU
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.13 #92	SHSU
Success rate	38% #121	43% #95	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #107	35.2 #132	SHSU
Yards / play	5.60 #91	6.48 #125	SHSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	+0.20 #112	Even
Success rate	42% #86	43% #91	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	3.3 #111	8.5 #78	11.8 #101	4.0 #108	6.3 #86	10.3 #101
SHSU allowed	4.2 #60	7.6 #74	11.8 #68	7.4 #110	7.0 #85	14.4 #116

SHSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.8 #92	10.4 #45	15.2 #69	4.8 #97	2.8 #135	7.6 #131
WKU allowed	7.3 #115	11.0 #123	18.3 #124	11.0 #136	5.8 #65	16.8 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.