Washington @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Fri, Oct 16, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F13 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington

3-3 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

3-3 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

PUR -3

✓ WASH W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 26–28 PUR

✗ PUR (57%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPUR -2.5

ClosePUR -3

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:32

Washington at Purdue: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 1:47 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPUR -2.5

0.5 → PUR

ClosePUR -3

0.5 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PUR -2.5 · closed PUR -3 · moved 0.5 toward PURmodel PUR -1

model PUR -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (308 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPUR -2.5

ClosePUR -3

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PUR as a 3-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 38–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 50.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 2.7; 60.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	RUTG vs ILL 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–33	L	O56
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	44–19	W	O53.5
Very close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Very close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Very close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Very close	WVU vs KU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	32–28	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-0	1-0
PUR WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	0-1

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; PUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH UOOUO	3-3	50%	3-3
PUR OOOUO	5-1	83%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 790 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PUR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WASH 9–2 PUR (1 tied) WASH leads · 12 games since 1961 · WASH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Purdue 13 @ Washington 49	WASH -14.5	WASH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+13.7 →+6.2▼ 7.5#44

PUR−1.8 →+3.0▲ 4.8#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WASH

Longer bar = better

PUR

#84

Offense

PUR better ▶

#45

#60

Defense

◀ WASH better

#125

+0.8 #21

Turnovers

◀ WASH better

+0.2 #64

65 plays #84

Pace

PUR faster ▶

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #88	31.3 #121	WASH
Yards / play	5.68 #84	6.53 #127	WASH
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.27 #128	WASH
Success rate	42% #83	46% #123	WASH

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #55	22.2 #60	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #65	5.26 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #21	+0.03 #44	PUR
Success rate	47% #38	41% #73	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	4.0 #102	9.0 #69	13.0 #89	4.8 #96	8.3 #45	13.2 #73
PUR allowed	6.3 #105	9.0 #101	15.3 #107	4.5 #65	9.0 #121	13.5 #103

PUR scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	6.2 #74	7.2 #99	13.3 #86	7.8 #37	8.8 #31	16.7 #26
WASH allowed	5.5 #91	7.0 #69	12.5 #80	4.2 #57	5.5 #58	9.7 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.