Wisconsin @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

4-1 · Power #33

final

Final

UCLA

5-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -1.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 22–25 UCLA

✓ UCLA (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -3

CloseUCLA -1.5

Total49.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -3

1.5 → WIS

CloseUCLA -1.5

1.5 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open49.5

▼ 7

Close42.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -3 · closed UCLA -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward WISmodel UCLA -9

model UCLA -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (228 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 58% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -3

CloseUCLA -1.5

Total49.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WIS	UCLA	Over	Under	WIS	UCLA
DraftKingsDK	+1.5-108	-1.5-112	42.5-115	42.5-105	+102	-122

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 1.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 17–7; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 4.2; 46.2 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Loose	IU vs NEB 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	56–7	W	O48
Loose	LSU vs FLA 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-5	20–10	W	U47.5
Loose	NEB vs RUTG 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-6.25	14–7	W	U40
Loose	OU vs MIZ 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & situation	-4.5	17–6	W	U42.5
Loose	PITT vs NCSU 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5	53–34	W	O52.5
Loose	VAN vs NCSU 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread	-3	35–31	W	O50.5
Loose	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5
Loose	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3	28–21	W	U51
Loose	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	10–48	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-0	1-1
UCLA WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OUOOU	3-2	60%	4-1
UCLA OUOOU	3-2	60%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
UCLA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+3.3 →+9.7▲ 6.4#31

UCLA+2.1 →+14.7▲ 12.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WIS

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#74

Offense

UCLA better ▶

#32

#14

Defense

Even

#15

−0.4 #99

Turnovers

UCLA better ▶

+2.4 #2

61 plays #114

Pace

UCLA faster ▶

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	WIS off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #58	18.0 #30	UCLA
Yards / play	6.22 #52	4.62 #20	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.16 #64	−0.17 #2	UCLA
Success rate	38% #122	33% #9	UCLA

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	39.2 #19	16.6 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.88 #16	4.09 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	−0.09 #9	WIS
Success rate	47% #41	35% #20	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	7.4 #48	10.2 #52	17.6 #48	6.0 #70	8.0 #48	14.0 #59
UCLA allowed	4.0 #47	5.4 #33	9.4 #39	3.4 #35	5.2 #51	8.6 #34

UCLA scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	6.2 #71	9.4 #62	15.6 #68	7.0 #45	16.6 #1	23.6 #2
WIS allowed	4.6 #65	4.6 #24	9.2 #37	4.0 #51	3.4 #13	7.4 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.