USC @ Wisconsin: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Kickoff forecast64°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

USC

6-1 · Power #18

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Wisconsin

4-2 · Power #33

projected

USC 58%

42% WIS

Spread

USC -3

open USC -1.5

Total

49.5

model 51

Spread edge

WIS by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUSC -1.5

CurrentUSC -3

Total52.5 → 49.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUSC -1.5

1.5 → USC

NowUSC -3

1.5 pts toward USC

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Now49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened USC -1.5 · now USC -3 · moved 1.5 toward USCmodel USC -1.5

model USC -1.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (233 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUSC -1.5

CurrentUSC -3

Total52.5 → 49.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:09

USC at Wisconsin: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:29 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The market has moved toward USC. Here is why that matters. USC visits Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have USC 18th and Wisconsin 33rd. That’s about 5 points better than Wisconsin on a neutral field. Since the preseason, USC has dropped from 12th to 18th, while Wisconsin has moved up from 51st to 33rd. Kickoff forecast at Camp Randall Stadium: 63 degrees, dry, wind 9 miles per hour, gusting to 18. USC comes off a bye. Against the spread, USC is 2 and 5 and Wisconsin is 3 and 3. On offense, USC ranks 16th and Wisconsin 86th. Wisconsin has the better defense, 17th to 82nd. USC plays at the faster pace. The model has USC winning 27 to 24, a 58 percent chance. USC is favored by 3, up from 1.5 at the open, away from our model. The total opened at 52.5 and sits at 50.5. Our model makes it USC by 1.5, with a total near 51. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	USC	WIS	Over	Under	USC	WIS
BetMGMMGM	-3-102	+3-118	50.5-108	50.5-112	-145	+125
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3-104	+3-116	50.5-110	50.5-110	-148	+128
BetRiversBetRivers	-3-108	+3-115	50-112	50-110	-155	+125
BetUSBetUS	-3-105	+3-115	50-110	50-110	-150	+129
BovadaBovada	-3-105	+3-115	50-105	50-115	-145	+125
DraftKingsDK	-3-102	+3-118	49.5-115	49.5-105	-148	+124
FanDuelFD	-2.5-122	+2.5+100	50.5-105	50.5-115	-154	+128
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-3+100	+3-112	50.5-108	50.5-108	-148	+128
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-3-110	+3-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	-152	+124

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	USC	WIS	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-1.5-108	+1.5-112	24.5+101	24.5-121
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-108	+1.5-112	24.5+100	24.5-120
FanDuelFD	-2.5-112	+2.5-108	24.5+104	24.5-128

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

USC -3

WIS +3

Bets81% 19%

Money58% 42%

Money is 23 pts ahead of bets on WIS +3

Winner

USC

WIS

Bets87% 13%

Money73% 27%

Money is 14 pts ahead of bets on WIS

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 3-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 3.8; 53.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC @ PSU 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	31–23	W	U54.5
Close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2	21–26	L	U55
Close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Close	MISS @ AUB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	28–21	W	U55.5
Close	SMU @ WAKE 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	12–13	L	U52.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	TA&M @ MIZ 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	38–17	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-1	2-4
WIS LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OOOUU	4-3	57%	6-1
WIS UOOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

In 1443 games with totals 45.5–53.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
WIS	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

USC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs OSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ IU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs MD	L28–29LO

Wisconsin

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ IOWA	L0–37LU
Nov 7	vs RUTG	W42–7WO
Nov 14	@ MD	L10–27LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USC 1–0 WIS USC leads · 1 game since 2023 · USC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Wisconsin 21 @ USC 38	USC -13.5	USC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+17.6 →+14.3▼ 3.3#18

WIS+3.3 →+9.2▲ 5.9#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USC

Longer bar = better

WIS

#16

Offense

◀ USC better

#86

#82

Defense

WIS better ▶

#17

0.0 #69

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #76

69 plays #42

Pace

◀ USC faster

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #26	16.7 #23	Even
Yards / play	6.67 #21	4.32 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #10	−0.04 #14	Even
Success rate	52% #7	36% #22	Even

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #81	25.1 #78	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #61	5.95 #105	WIS
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.13 #91	Even
Success rate	38% #121	40% #55	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USC scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.9 #76	14.6 #6	20.4 #24	8.6 #19	7.4 #58	16.0 #33
WIS allowed	4.3 #57	5.0 #28	9.3 #40	3.3 #36	4.0 #18	7.3 #16

WIS scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	6.2 #71	8.5 #79	14.7 #76	6.2 #69	6.7 #78	12.8 #79
USC allowed	3.9 #44	5.9 #46	9.7 #46	6.9 #104	8.6 #120	15.4 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.