Iowa State @ Arizona: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arizona · Conference game

Kickoff forecast70°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

3-3 · Power #50

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Arizona

5-1 · Power #31

projected

ISU 23%

77% ARIZ

Spread

ARIZ -10.5

open ARIZ -10

Total

51.5

model 50

Spread edge

ISU by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenARIZ -10

CurrentARIZ -10.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenARIZ -10

0.5 → ARIZ

NowARIZ -10.5

0.5 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Now51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -10 · unchangedmodel ARIZ -10 matches the line

model ARIZ -10 = line ✓

Oct 20line modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 45% (177 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenARIZ -10

CurrentARIZ -10.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:03

Iowa State at Arizona: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:31 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Here’s how our model sees it. Iowa State heads to Arizona for a Saturday kickoff at 7:30 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Arizona 31st and Iowa State 50th. That’s about 5 points better than Iowa State on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Iowa State has slipped from 42nd to 50th, while Arizona has held steady around 31st. Kickoff forecast at Casino Del Sol Stadium: 73 degrees, dry, wind 9 miles per hour, gusting to 14. Against the spread, Iowa State is 2 and 3 with a push and Arizona is 2 and 4. On offense, Arizona ranks 19th and Iowa State 83rd. Arizona has the better defense, 24th to 77th. Arizona plays at the faster pace. The model has Arizona winning 30 to 20, a 76 percent chance. Arizona is favored by 10. The total opened at 50.5 and sits at 51.5. Our model makes it Arizona by 10, with a total near 49.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ISU	ARIZ	Over	Under	ISU	ARIZ
BetMGMMGM	+10-112	-10-105	51.5-105	51.5-112	+260	-325
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+9.5-111	-9.5-109	51-115	51-105	+245	-300
BetRiversBetRivers	+10.5-114	-10.5-108	50.5-109	50.5-113	+280	-400
BetUSBetUS	+9.5-110	-9.5-110	51-110	51-110	+255	-310
BovadaBovada	+10-115	-10-105	51.5-110	51.5-110	+250	-300
DraftKingsDK	+10.5-108	-10.5-112	51.5-102	51.5-118	+275	-345
FanDuelFD	+9.5-102	-9.5-120	51.5-105	51.5-115	+285	-365
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+9.5-107	-9.5-105	51-114	51-103	+245	-300
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+10-110	-10-110	51-110	51-110	+270	-360

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	ISU	ARIZ	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+6.5-113	-6.5-107	25.5-112	25.5-108
DraftKingsDK	+6.5-115	-6.5-105	25.5-115	25.5-105
FanDuelFD	+6.5-112	-6.5-108	25.5-110	25.5-110

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

ISU +10.5

ARIZ -10.5

Bets68% 32%

Money32% 68%

Money is 36 pts ahead of bets on ARIZ -10.5

Winner

ISU

ARIZ

Bets8% 92%

Money72% 28%

Money is 64 pts ahead of bets on ISU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 10.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 10.4; 55.8 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	OKST vs UCF 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	42–28	W	O53.5
Very close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & spread	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Very close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	ODU vs TROY 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-9.5	33–0	W	U53.5
Close	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Close	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-10	47–45	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WWLPL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	1-2
ARIZ LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3
ARIZ UOOUO	3-3	50%	5-1

In 1583 games with totals 47.5–55.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%
ARIZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Iowa State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs OKST	W20–13LU
Nov 7	@ BAY	W43–21WO
Nov 14	vs CIN	L30–38LO

Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ TTU	L22–28LU
Nov 6	vs TCU	L28–49LO
Nov 14	vs UTAH	W23–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ISU 2–4 ARIZ (1 tied) ARIZ leads · 7 games since 1948 · ISU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Arizona 14 @ Iowa State 39	ISU -4.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+6.2 →+4.6▼ 1.6#51

ARIZ+8.6 →+9.7▲ 1.1#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ISU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#83

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#19

#77

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#24

+0.5 #36

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.5 #109

62 plays #117

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	ISU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #69	19.0 #32	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.83 #72	4.87 #28	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	−0.04 #16	ARIZ
Success rate	39% #112	36% #21	ARIZ

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #31	21.7 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #14	5.84 #100	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.27 #20	+0.11 #83	ARIZ
Success rate	50% #11	42% #74	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0 #50	9.7 #56	16.7 #55	5.0 #96	8.0 #49	13.0 #76
ARIZ allowed	5.7 #89	4.0 #20	9.7 #44	2.3 #19	7.0 #89	9.3 #42

ARIZ scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.7 #30	10.3 #45	19.0 #33	8.2 #24	8.5 #41	16.7 #26
ISU allowed	5.8 #96	6.8 #64	12.7 #77	3.5 #38	5.5 #50	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.