Cincinnati @ Iowa State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Cincinnati

4-2 · Power #64

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Iowa State

3-3 · Power #50

projected

CIN 31%

69% ISU

Spread

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Total

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model 55.5

Model line

ISU -7

ISU 69% to win

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Winner

Market

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Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WLWLL	3-3	50%	0-2	—
ISU WWLPL	2-3-1	40%	1-2-1	—

Venue/role: CIN away; ISU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2
ISU UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
ISU	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cincinnati

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs COLO	L23–34LO
Nov 28	@ BYU	L14–26LU

Iowa State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ UCF	W38–35LO
Nov 28	vs KSU	W24–21WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

CIN 1–2 ISU ISU leads · 3 games since 2023 · CIN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Iowa State 30 @ Cincinnati 38	CIN -1.5	CIN W
Nov 16 2024	Cincinnati 17 @ Iowa State 34	ISU -7.5	ISU W
Oct 14 2023	Iowa State 30 @ Cincinnati 10	CIN -3.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+1.4 →+1.0▼ 0.4#65

ISU+6.2 →+4.7▼ 1.5#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CIN

Longer bar = better

ISU

#21

Offense

◀ CIN better

#83

#112

Defense

ISU better ▶

#77

+0.8 #16

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

+0.5 #36

66 plays #75

Pace

◀ CIN faster

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #35	21.7 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.99 #10	5.84 #100	CIN
PPA / play	+0.34 #6	+0.11 #83	CIN
Success rate	47% #34	42% #74	CIN

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #69	26.8 #97	ISU
Yards / play	5.83 #72	6.16 #117	ISU
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	+0.21 #116	ISU
Success rate	39% #112	45% #119	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.0 #98	8.7 #78	12.7 #94	11.7 #3	10.8 #8	22.5 #1
ISU allowed	5.8 #96	6.8 #64	12.7 #77	3.5 #38	5.5 #50	9.0 #36

ISU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0 #50	9.7 #56	16.7 #55	5.0 #96	8.0 #49	13.0 #76
CIN allowed	4.5 #62	8.7 #96	13.2 #85	4.8 #71	8.8 #122	13.7 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.