Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Texas Tech

6-0 · Power #15

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Oklahoma State

4-2 · Power #44

projected

TTU 84%

16% OKST

Spread

TTU -15.5

Total

61.5

model 57.5

Spread edge

OKST by 8

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTTU -15.5

Total61.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTTU -15.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now61.5

Line context

Road favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 53% (47 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTTU -15.5

Total61.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 15.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 13.7; 60.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ COLO 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	26–19	L	U60.5
Very close	LOU @ SYR 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	34–26	L	O56.5
Close	ORE @ RUTG 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-17.5	56–10	W	O62
Close	BOIS @ SJSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-14.5	42–21	W	O62
Close	TEX @ TCU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	29–26	L	U56.25
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	40–36	L	O55.5
Close	TEX @ ARK 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	20–10	L	U57.5
Close	UNC @ GT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	42–46	L	O65
Close	MISS @ FLA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-13	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	MIA @ SYR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	38–42	L	O67.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-3
OKST WWWWW	5-1	83%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OOOUO	4-2	67%	6-0
OKST OUOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

In 656 games with totals 57.5–65.5, 47% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
OKST	4-6 40%	9-1 90%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ BAY	L35–59LO
Nov 26	vs TCU	L34–35WO

Oklahoma State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ ASU	L21–42LO
Nov 28	vs KU	L21–38WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TTU 25–24 OKST (3 tied) TTU leads · 52 games since 1935 · TTU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Oklahoma State 0 @ Texas Tech 42	TTU -35.5	TTU W
Nov 23 2024	Texas Tech 56 @ Oklahoma State 48	TTU -4.5	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+19.6 →+14.7▼ 4.9#16

OKST−8.9 →+6.1▲ 15.0#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TTU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#35

Offense

Even

#27

#30

Defense

◀ TTU better

#73

+0.5 #39

Turnovers

◀ TTU better

−0.7 #118

67 plays #62

Pace

OKST faster ▶

72 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #16	23.7 #68	TTU
Yards / play	6.32 #45	5.32 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #52	+0.10 #76	TTU
Success rate	48% #27	42% #86	TTU

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #21	17.7 #27	Even
Yards / play	7.24 #7	5.15 #53	OKST
PPA / play	+0.16 #61	−0.06 #11	TTU
Success rate	49% #17	37% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	7.5 #43	11.2 #35	18.7 #38	7.7 #33	11.5 #5	19.2 #10
OKST allowed	6.3 #105	6.3 #56	12.7 #77	6.3 #93	4.7 #34	11.0 #68

OKST scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.0 #91	10.8 #37	15.8 #65	11.0 #8	10.3 #11	21.3 #3
TTU allowed	4.0 #46	5.7 #37	9.7 #44	4.0 #49	4.0 #18	8.0 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.