Louisville @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Louisville

3-3 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

2-3 · Power #70

final

Closing spread

LOU -14.5

✓ SYR W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 35–22 SYR

✓ LOU (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -10.5

CloseLOU -14.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -10.5

4 → LOU

CloseLOU -14.5

4 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened LOU -10.5 · closed LOU -14.5 · moved 4 toward LOUmodel LOU -9

model LOU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 51% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (225 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -10.5

CloseLOU -14.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LOU	SYR	Over	Under	LOU	SYR
DraftKingsDK	-14.5-112	+14.5-108	56.5-112	56.5-108	-650	+470

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 14.5-point road favorite at SYR, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 34–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 13.3; 59.6 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ CAL 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	35–38	L	O53.5
Very close	PSU @ RUTG 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	40–36	L	O55.5
Close	BOIS @ SJSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	42–21	W	O62
Close	TCU @ WVU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	23–17	L	U55.5
Close	MICH @ MD 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	45–20	W	O46.5
Close	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & rest	-12	24–20	L	U52
Close	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Close	TEX @ TCU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	29–26	L	U56.25
Close	CLEM @ BC 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-14	41–10	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WWLLW	4-2	67%	0-1	3-2
SYR WLLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OOUOO	5-1	83%	3-3
SYR OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 650 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SYR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.5 →+11.6▲ 2.1#24

SYR−3.6 →+1.0▲ 4.6#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LOU

Longer bar = better

SYR

#12

Offense

◀ LOU better

#82

#94

Defense

SYR better ▶

#67

+0.8 #20

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.2 #88

64 plays #100

Pace

SYR faster ▶

81 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #17	24.0 #75	LOU
Yards / play	7.79 #4	5.06 #52	LOU
PPA / play	+0.34 #9	+0.06 #56	LOU
Success rate	49% #19	42% #83	LOU

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #53	27.7 #104	SYR
Yards / play	5.55 #94	5.60 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	+0.15 #100	Even
Success rate	42% #87	42% #84	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.8 #58	8.7 #76	15.5 #69	13.3 #1	10.7 #9	24.0 #1
SYR allowed	4.2 #55	4.8 #26	9.0 #32	5.4 #83	8.2 #115	13.6 #106

SYR scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.0 #76	15.4 #3	21.4 #20	3.0 #127	6.8 #74	9.8 #115
LOU allowed	5.0 #74	9.7 #107	14.7 #102	7.0 #106	6.0 #65	13.0 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.