Florida State @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Fri, Oct 9, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

3-2 · Power #40

final

Final

Louisville

2-3 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -4

✓ LOU W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 28–32 LOU

✓ LOU (61%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -7.5

CloseLOU -4

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -7.5

3.5 → FSU

CloseLOU -4

3.5 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -7.5 · closed LOU -4 · moved 3.5 toward FSUmodel LOU -4 matches the line

model LOU -4 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 50% (233 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (114 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -7.5

CloseLOU -4

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 4-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 44–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 60.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.6; 54 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs CIN 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	45–23	W	O58.5
Very close	DUKE vs UVA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	17–34	L	U60
Very close	CLEM vs UNC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Very close	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5
Very close	SC vs UK 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	34–35	L	O52.5
Close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & total	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Close	CIN vs BAY 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	41–20	W	U68.5
Close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Close	LSU vs ARK 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-4	23–22	L	U58.5
Close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-1	21–38	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LPWLW	2-2-1	50%	1-0	2-0-1
LOU WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU UUOUU	1-4	20%	3-2
LOU OOOUO	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 351 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	2-8 20%
LOU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FSU 1–0 LOU FSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 2 2023	Louisville 6 @ Florida State 16	Pick’em	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+11.5 →+8.6▼ 2.9#37

LOU+9.5 →+10.0▲ 0.5#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

FSU

Longer bar = better

LOU

#41

Offense

LOU better ▶

#18

#88

Defense

Even

#98

−0.4 #99

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.8 #30

62 plays #112

Pace

LOU faster ▶

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #58	29.2 #114	FSU
Yards / play	6.74 #26	5.79 #103	FSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #25	+0.16 #100	FSU
Success rate	45% #55	41% #76	FSU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #23	21.6 #55	LOU
Yards / play	7.52 #5	5.59 #87	LOU
PPA / play	+0.31 #13	+0.20 #117	LOU
Success rate	49% #29	43% #94	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.6 #52	10.2 #58	17.8 #52	9.0 #30	6.4 #85	15.4 #51
LOU allowed	3.2 #32	11.6 #126	14.8 #103	8.4 #124	6.0 #71	14.4 #112

LOU scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	8.2 #45	7.6 #91	15.8 #69	13.2 #2	9.6 #26	22.8 #5
FSU allowed	3.4 #39	9.4 #104	12.8 #86	3.4 #40	5.4 #54	8.8 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.