South Alabama @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Thu, Oct 8, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

3-2 · Power #101

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas State

2-3 · Power #103

final

Closing spread

ARST -3

✓ USA W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 105 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 28–31 ARST

✗ ARST (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -1.5

CloseARST -3

Total56.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -1.5

1.5 → ARST

CloseARST -3

1.5 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open56.5

▲ 4

Close60.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -1.5 · closed ARST -3 · moved 1.5 toward ARSTmodel ARST -1.5

model ARST -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (296 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (22 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -1.5

CloseARST -3

Total56.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 3-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 56–49 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 105 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.1 against an average line of 2.7; 56.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2	6–26	L	U59.5
Very close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Very close	SJSU vs UNM 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	35–28	W	O58.5
Very close	GASO vs CCU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	45–40	W	O59.5
Very close	USF vs FAU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	14–56	L	O61
Very close	USU vs SJSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	30–25	W	U63.5
Close	FIU vs JXST 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	27–21	W	U56
Close	UVA vs GT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	17–45	L	O56
Close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-4	24–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1
ARST LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UOOOO	4-1	80%	3-2
ARST OOUUU	2-3	40%	2-3

Went over in Q2. Of 350 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
ARST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USA 1–2 ARST ARST leads · 3 games since 2023 · ARST has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2025	Arkansas State 15 @ South Alabama 14	USA -8.5	ARST W
Oct 5 2024	South Alabama 16 @ Arkansas State 18	USA -2.5	ARST W
Nov 11 2023	Arkansas State 14 @ South Alabama 21	USA -14	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−9.6 →−8.7▲ 0.9#102

ARST−10.2 →−9.8▲ 0.4#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USA

Longer bar = better

ARST

#55

Offense

◀ USA better

#76

#127

Defense

ARST better ▶

#108

+1.2 #17

Turnovers

◀ USA better

+0.6 #40

73 plays #12

Pace

◀ USA faster

57 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #42	23.4 #69	USA
Yards / play	6.14 #60	6.36 #121	USA
PPA / play	+0.23 #44	+0.20 #116	USA
Success rate	43% #75	47% #126	USA

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ARST offense

	ARST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #102	31.6 #119	Even
Yards / play	6.09 #64	7.22 #137	ARST
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	+0.27 #125	ARST
Success rate	45% #52	48% #128	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USA scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	12.8 #5	8.8 #76	21.6 #24	7.6 #44	6.2 #89	13.8 #69
ARST allowed	2.8 #26	8.4 #90	11.2 #66	6.2 #90	6.0 #71	12.2 #88

ARST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	0.6 #136	11.8 #34	12.4 #94	6.8 #64	4.8 #110	11.6 #88
USA allowed	5.6 #91	7.6 #74	13.2 #92	9.8 #132	8.6 #116	18.4 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.