Old Dominion @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F13 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Old Dominion

1-4 · Power #112

▲ winner

Final

App State

3-1 · Power #94

final

Closing spread

APP -8.5

✓ ODU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 13 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 19–28 APP

✗ APP (73%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAPP -5.5

CloseAPP -8.5

Total51.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAPP -5.5

3 → APP

CloseAPP -8.5

3 pts toward App State

Total

Open51.5

▼ 6

Close45.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened APP -5.5 · closed APP -8.5 · moved 3 toward APPmodel APP -9

model APP -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 51% (188 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (116 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAPP -5.5

CloseAPP -8.5

Total51.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as an 8.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 10–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 13 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 8.7; 53.2 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA vs MRSH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-10	28–0	W	U45
Close	USA vs OHIO 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-7	41–36	L	O49.5
Loose	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Loose	WKU vs MTSU 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	42–26	W	O51.5
Loose	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Loose	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Loose	MSU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-7	13–38	L	U51.5
Loose	MOST vs UTEP 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–24	W	O48.5
Loose	UTSA vs ARMY 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & team ratings	-8.5	24–27	L	O50.5
Loose	WKU vs FIU 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-10	6–25	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-2	0-3
APP WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU UOUOO	3-2	60%	1-4
APP OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 41 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
APP	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ODU 3–4 APP APP leads · 7 games since 2015 · ODU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	App State 21 @ Old Dominion 24	ODU -12.5	APP W
Nov 2 2024	Old Dominion 20 @ App State 28	ODU -2.5	APP W
Oct 21 2023	App State 21 @ Old Dominion 28	APP -6	ODU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU+1.2 →−9.8▼ 11.0#106

APP−10.7 →−5.8▲ 4.9#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ODU

Longer bar = better

APP

#133

Offense

APP better ▶

#59

#64

Defense

Even

#71

−0.4 #98

Turnovers

APP better ▶

+1.0 #24

60 plays #121

Pace

APP faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: APP defense

	ODU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #117	22.3 #56	APP
Yards / play	4.29 #138	5.07 #54	APP
PPA / play	−0.13 #137	+0.10 #81	APP
Success rate	30% #138	43% #94	APP

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #46	32.4 #122	APP
Yards / play	6.60 #35	4.95 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #60	+0.03 #50	Even
Success rate	42% #94	37% #39	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	4.0 #105	8.0 #89	12.0 #95	5.6 #83	2.2 #136	7.8 #128
APP allowed	5.3 #85	6.0 #45	11.3 #64	3.3 #39	7.8 #111	11.0 #69

APP scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	3.3 #113	14.5 #14	17.8 #53	7.5 #48	9.5 #25	17.0 #28
ODU allowed	11.0 #132	10.8 #124	21.8 #135	6.6 #94	4.0 #27	10.6 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.