James Madison @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 8:10 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

5-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

Georgia Southern

2-3 · Power #82

final

Closing spread

JMU -7

✓ GASO W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 31–23 GASO

✓ JMU (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -10

CloseJMU -7

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -10

3 → GASO

CloseJMU -7

3 pts toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -10 · closed JMU -7 · moved 3 toward GASOmodel JMU -10

model JMU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (156 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (268 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -10

CloseJMU -7

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 7-point road favorite at GASO, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 7.8; 56.9 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	MEM @ TROY 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-4.5	28–7	W	U51.5
Close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	CONN @ DEL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	41–44	L	O52.5
Close	PITT @ SYR 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total	-9.5	30–13	W	U54.5
Close	LIB @ FIU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	38–6	W	U53.5
Close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–20	L	U54
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-10	32–17	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	4-0
GASO WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; GASO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UOUOO	3-2	60%	5-0
GASO UUOOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
GASO	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

JMU 2–1 GASO JMU leads · 3 games since 2023 · JMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Georgia Southern 10 @ James Madison 35	JMU -16.5	JMU W
Oct 19 2024	James Madison 14 @ Georgia Southern 28	JMU -8.5	GASO W
Oct 14 2023	Georgia Southern 13 @ James Madison 41	JMU -5.5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.8 →+4.7▼ 1.1#49

GASO−8.8 →−6.8▲ 2.0#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

JMU

Longer bar = better

GASO

#24

Offense

◀ JMU better

#81

#15

Defense

◀ JMU better

#68

+0.8 #29

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #39

66 plays #71

Pace

GASO faster ▶

67 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #3	23.8 #74	JMU
Yards / play	6.87 #16	5.01 #47	JMU
PPA / play	+0.27 #28	+0.12 #85	JMU
Success rate	46% #47	40% #65	Even

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	GASO off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #96	13.2 #9	JMU
Yards / play	5.67 #86	4.52 #16	JMU
PPA / play	+0.14 #72	−0.06 #17	JMU
Success rate	43% #70	34% #18	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	13.0 #3	16.2 #4	29.2 #2	6.6 #64	9.0 #29	15.6 #46
GASO allowed	4.2 #61	8.6 #97	12.8 #85	4.2 #58	6.8 #82	11.0 #71

GASO scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	6.8 #65	10.4 #46	17.2 #54	3.4 #118	4.2 #119	7.6 #130
JMU allowed	3.4 #40	4.6 #24	8.0 #18	2.0 #14	3.2 #15	5.2 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.