Sam Houston @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Thu, Oct 8, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

1-3 · Power #124

final

Final

Liberty

4-1 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -13.5

✓ LIB W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 19–33 LIB

✓ LIB (84%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -13.5

CloseLIB -13.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -13.5

no move

CloseLIB -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -13.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -15.5

model LIB -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 55% (153 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -13.5

CloseLIB -13.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 13.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 35–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 14; 50.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	41–35	L	O47
Very close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Very close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Very close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Very close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	ECU vs TLSA 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	41–27	L	O54.5
Close	JXST vs FIU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	34–31	L	O58.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	ODU vs TROY 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	33–0	W	U53.5
Close	BOIS vs UNM 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	41–25	W	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1
LIB LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3
LIB UUOOU	2-3	40%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
LIB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SHSU 1–2 LIB LIB leads · 3 games since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Liberty 18 @ Sam Houston 20	LIB -2.5	SHSU W
Oct 5 2023	Sam Houston 16 @ Liberty 21	LIB -17.5	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−20.4 →−12.9▲ 7.5#118

LIB−8.8 →−1.9▲ 6.9#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SHSU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#83

Offense

LIB better ▶

#58

#64

Defense

LIB better ▶

#32

+0.5 #48

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #41

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ SHSU faster

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	SHSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #80	17.8 #34	LIB
Yards / play	5.91 #76	4.99 #46	LIB
PPA / play	+0.07 #108	−0.01 #35	LIB
Success rate	44% #66	34% #12	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #69	24.0 #76	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #50	5.08 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #73	+0.07 #65	Even
Success rate	47% #38	39% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	6.0 #72	12.3 #33	18.3 #51	6.0 #75	3.5 #127	9.5 #112
LIB allowed	4.6 #78	7.6 #74	12.2 #77	2.8 #32	2.8 #8	5.6 #15

LIB scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	8.6 #41	6.6 #105	15.2 #75	5.4 #88	9.8 #25	15.2 #52
SHSU allowed	3.5 #50	7.8 #79	11.3 #67	7.5 #112	5.3 #54	12.8 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.