Iowa @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Fri, Oct 9, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

4-1 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Washington

3-2 · Power #43

final

Closing spread

WASH -3

✓ IOWA W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 20–23 WASH

✗ WASH (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWASH -1.5

CloseWASH -3

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -1.5

1.5 → WASH

CloseWASH -3

1.5 pts toward Washington

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -1.5 · closed WASH -3 · moved 1.5 toward WASHmodel WASH -2.5

model WASH -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (298 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (23 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWASH -1.5

CloseWASH -3

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 3-point home favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 41–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 2.8; 45.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	IOWA vs WIS 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	42–10	W	O40.5
Close	ORST vs UTAH 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–7	W	U44.5
Close	IOWA vs PSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	IOWA vs WASH 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	40–16	W	O41.5
Close	ARIZ vs UTAH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	42–18	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA WLWWL	3-2	60%	1-0	1-1
WASH LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-4	0-4

Venue/role: IOWA away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUOUU	1-4	20%	4-1
WASH UUOOU	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q3. Of 249 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
WASH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IOWA 5–3 WASH IOWA leads · 8 games since 1937 · IOWA has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Washington 16 @ Iowa 40	IOWA -2.5	IOWA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+11.4 →+9.9▼ 1.5#28

WASH+13.7 →+8.7▼ 5.0#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

IOWA

Longer bar = better

WASH

#68

Offense

Even

#77

#31

Defense

Even

#31

+0.4 #46

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+1.0 #21

63 plays #107

Pace

Even

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	IOWA off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #74	18.4 #37	WASH
Yards / play	6.24 #52	4.74 #31	WASH
PPA / play	+0.16 #71	−0.06 #22	WASH
Success rate	43% #75	37% #34	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	WASH off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #87	12.6 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	6.04 #66	4.69 #28	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.12 #84	+0.03 #52	IOWA
Success rate	43% #70	37% #33	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	10.8 #17	8.8 #75	19.6 #40	2.8 #120	6.6 #81	9.4 #112
WASH allowed	4.0 #55	5.6 #41	9.6 #48	3.6 #49	5.2 #49	8.8 #40

WASH scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	4.8 #94	10.2 #58	15.0 #76	2.8 #120	8.8 #36	11.6 #89
IOWA allowed	3.4 #39	4.0 #22	7.4 #16	2.6 #27	2.6 #6	5.2 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.