Indiana @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F14 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

5-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

5-0 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

IU -9.5

✓ NEB W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 30–21 NEB

✓ IU (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -9.5

CloseIU -9.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -9.5

no move

CloseIU -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -9.5 · unchangedmodel IU -6

model IU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 51% (97 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -9.5

CloseIU -9.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 9.5-point road favorite at NEB, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 16.2 against an average line of 7.4; 47.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA @ UK 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	45–17	W	O47.5
Close	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	OSU @ WASH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings	-9.5	24–6	W	U52.5
Close	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Loose	UTAH @ ISU 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–17	W	O46.5
Loose	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-10	27–3	W	U53
Loose	MICH @ PSU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	24–15	W	U44.5
Loose	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-6	20–33	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-0	1-4
NEB WWLWW	4-1	80%	3-1	—

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; NEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OUUOO	3-2	60%	5-0
NEB OOUUO	3-2	60%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
NEB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IU 12–9 NEB (3 tied) IU leads · 24 games since 1936 · IU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Nebraska 7 @ Indiana 56	IU -6.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+23.3 →+22.4▼ 0.9#7

NEB+6.6 →+13.8▲ 7.2#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

NEB

Offense

Even

#17

#12

Defense

Even

#14

+0.4 #48

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+1.2 #13

62 plays #111

Pace

NEB faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	44.2 #8	14.2 #16	Even
Yards / play	7.87 #4	4.47 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.49 #2	−0.10 #9	Even
Success rate	53% #6	34% #16	Even

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	43.6 #9	10.8 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #28	4.14 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #6	−0.05 #24	Even
Success rate	49% #23	33% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

IU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.2 #34	13.6 #22	22.8 #16	11.0 #13	10.4 #19	21.4 #8
NEB allowed	5.8 #95	3.4 #16	9.2 #38	2.0 #15	3.0 #11	5.0 #6

NEB scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	9.8 #25	13.8 #18	23.6 #13	4.2 #105	15.8 #2	20.0 #14
IU allowed	0.0 #1	1.2 #2	1.2 #1	4.8 #68	4.8 #42	9.6 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.