Indiana @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Indiana

4-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

1-3 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

IU -24.5

✓ IU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 41–16 RUTG

✓ IU (96%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -23.5

CloseIU -24.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -23.5

1 → IU

CloseIU -24.5

1 pt toward Indiana

Total

Open53.5

▲ 3

Close56.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -23.5 · closed IU -24.5 · moved 1 toward IUmodel IU -23

model IU -23

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (332 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -23.5

CloseIU -24.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 24.5-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 47–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.6 against an average line of 25.2; 57 points a game (usually 54). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND @ PUR 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-27.5	49–10	W	O57.5
Close	UGA @ GT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-24.5	31–23	L	U59.5
Close	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Close	CLEM @ WAKE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	49–14	W	P63
Close	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	41–16	W	O53
Close	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Close	TTU @ WVU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-24.5	49–0	W	U53.5
Close	IU @ PUR 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar situation	-28.5	56–3	W	O54.5
Loose	OSU @ PUR 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-29.5	34–10	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LLLL	0-4	0%	—	0-4
RUTG LLWW	2-2	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0
RUTG OUOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 632 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	10-0 100%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
RUTG	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IU 0–1 RUTG RUTG leads · 1 game since 2023 · RUTG has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Rutgers 31 @ Indiana 14	RUTG -6	RUTG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+23.3 →+21.0▼ 2.3#9

RUTG+2.3 →−2.1▼ 4.4#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

RUTG

Offense

◀ IU better

#53

#10

Defense

◀ IU better

#117

+0.5 #48

Turnovers

◀ IU better

−1.0 #128

61 plays #115

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #10	28.5 #110	IU
Yards / play	7.63 #4	6.14 #116	IU
PPA / play	+0.44 #2	+0.19 #114	IU
Success rate	51% #11	47% #126	IU

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	RUTG off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #53	9.8 #1	IU
Yards / play	6.34 #51	4.03 #6	IU
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	−0.04 #25	IU
Success rate	48% #34	33% #9	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

IU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.0 #34	13.8 #20	22.8 #19	10.3 #15	10.5 #18	20.8 #11
RUTG allowed	9.5 #129	8.3 #88	17.8 #118	4.5 #70	6.3 #78	10.8 #69

RUTG scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	8.8 #39	8.5 #81	17.3 #62	7.8 #40	8.8 #38	16.5 #33
IU allowed	0.0 #1	1.5 #3	1.5 #1	4.3 #66	4.0 #29	8.3 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.