Michigan @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F13 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan

3-1 · Power #34

final

Final

Minnesota

3-1 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -6.5

✓ MINN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 24–18 MINN

✗ MICH (68%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -8.5

CloseMICH -6.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -8.5

2 → MINN

CloseMICH -6.5

2 pts toward Minnesota

Total

Open44.5

▼ 3

Close41.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -8.5 · closed MICH -6.5 · moved 2 toward MINNmodel MICH -6

model MICH -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (187 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (110 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -8.5

CloseMICH -6.5

Total44.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 6.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MINN won 20–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 6.1; 42.4 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Close	CLEM @ MIA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	20–28	L	O45
Close	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	UGA @ AUB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	20–10	W	U46.5
Close	IOWA @ NEB 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	40–16	W	O38.5
Close	OU @ SC 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	26–7	W	U43
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LWWL	2-2	50%	—	1-2
MINN WLWW	3-1	75%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1
MINN OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MINN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MICH 2–0 MINN MICH leads · 2 games since 2023 · MICH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Minnesota 24 @ Michigan 27	MICH -10.5	MINN W
Oct 7 2023	Michigan 52 @ Minnesota 10	MICH -20	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+14.6 →+11.2▼ 3.4#23

MINN+1.1 →+3.0▲ 1.9#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MICH

Longer bar = better

MINN

#80

Offense

Even

#67

#14

Defense

◀ MICH better

#53

−0.8 #115

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.5 #41

61 plays #110

Pace

MINN faster ▶

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	MICH off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #94	19.0 #38	MINN
Yards / play	5.73 #86	4.82 #42	MINN
PPA / play	+0.16 #69	+0.05 #66	Even
Success rate	43% #72	39% #65	Even

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MINN off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #46	14.8 #23	MICH
Yards / play	5.81 #79	4.02 #6	MICH
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	−0.07 #16	MICH
Success rate	45% #52	32% #10	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	5.3 #88	5.8 #113	11.0 #108	7.8 #44	6.5 #85	14.3 #66
MINN allowed	3.5 #44	7.8 #79	11.3 #66	0.8 #4	7.0 #92	7.8 #33

MINN scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	10.3 #28	10.3 #62	20.5 #38	6.8 #64	7.8 #56	14.5 #63
MICH allowed	4.3 #64	2.5 #12	6.8 #19	1.8 #20	6.3 #78	8.0 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.