Iowa @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Iowa

3-0 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Michigan

3-0 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

MICH -4.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 19–23 MICH

✗ MICH (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -4.5

CloseMICH -4.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -4.5

no move

CloseMICH -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open39.5

no move

Close39.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -4.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -3.5

model MICH -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 52% (233 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -4.5

CloseMICH -4.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 4.5-point home favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IOWA won 20–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 4.6; 40.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Close	IOWA vs WASH 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	40–16	W	O41.5
Close	NEB vs ILL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	24–31	L	O42
Close	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Close	OU vs AUB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	24–17	W	U47.5
Close	SC vs VAN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–31	L	U48.5
Close	RUTG vs WASH 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	21–18	W	U45
Close	ISU vs IOWA 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–13	P	U43.25
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	NEB vs RUTG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.25	14–7	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA WLW	2-1	67%	—	—
MICH LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: IOWA away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
MICH UUO	1-2	33%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 55% of games with totals 35.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
MICH	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IOWA 0–1 MICH MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 2 2023	Michigan 26 @ Iowa 0	MICH -21.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+11.4 →+11.8▲ 0.4#24

MICH+14.6 →+12.2▼ 2.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

IOWA

Longer bar = better

MICH

#28

Offense

◀ IOWA better

#85

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#18

+1.0 #25

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

−0.7 #108

67 plays #58

Pace

◀ IOWA faster

59 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #46	13.0 #21	MICH
Yards / play	7.12 #22	3.75 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #25	−0.11 #18	Even
Success rate	52% #18	33% #23	Even

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MICH off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #91	4.3 #1	IOWA
Yards / play	5.51 #100	3.19 #1	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.18 #65	−0.15 #9	IOWA
Success rate	43% #82	23% #1	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	13.7 #9	14.7 #23	28.3 #6	4.7 #92	4.0 #113	8.7 #122
MICH allowed	3.3 #49	3.3 #23	6.7 #31	2.3 #23	4.0 #36	6.3 #20

MICH scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	4.7 #94	6.7 #100	11.3 #105	9.3 #27	6.7 #78	16.0 #45
IOWA allowed	0.0 #1	3.3 #23	3.3 #4	1.0 #10	0.0 #1	1.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.