Minnesota @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

2-1 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Washington

3-0 · Power #43

final

Closing spread

WASH -12.5

✓ MINN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 17–30 WASH

✗ WASH (82%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWASH -9.5

CloseWASH -12.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -9.5

3 → WASH

CloseWASH -12.5

3 pts toward Washington

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -9.5 · closed WASH -12.5 · moved 3 toward WASHmodel WASH -14

model WASH -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 57% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (324 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWASH -9.5

CloseWASH -12.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 12.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.8 against an average line of 12.5; 52.2 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13	43–21	W	O45
Close	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	OU vs TULN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–19	W	O49
Loose	FSU vs WAKE 2025 · Week 10 · loose	-12.5	42–7	W	U50.5
Loose	JMU vs WSU 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-15.5	24–20	L	U44.5
Loose	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings & rest	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Loose	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Loose	PSU vs WASH 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-13.5	35–6	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WLW	2-1	67%	—	0-1
WASH LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
WASH UUO	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 459 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
WASH	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+1.1 →+1.6▲ 0.5#62

WASH+13.7 →+10.8▼ 2.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MINN

Longer bar = better

WASH

#56

Offense

Even

#59

#52

Defense

WASH better ▶

#16

+0.3 #51

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+2.0 #4

66 plays #72

Pace

Even

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	MINN off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #35	13.3 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #71	4.38 #22	WASH
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	−0.19 #4	WASH
Success rate	48% #37	34% #18	Even

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #80	17.3 #36	MINN
Yards / play	6.52 #41	4.74 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #69	+0.04 #61	Even
Success rate	47% #45	40% #70	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	9.0 #39	11.3 #48	20.3 #40	8.0 #43	9.3 #34	17.3 #29
WASH allowed	1.0 #10	4.7 #33	5.7 #13	1.0 #13	6.7 #85	7.7 #34

WASH scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	5.7 #84	11.3 #48	17.0 #69	2.3 #130	10.0 #28	12.3 #85
MINN allowed	4.7 #76	7.0 #66	11.7 #70	1.0 #13	4.7 #44	5.7 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.