Wisconsin @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F8 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

2-1 · Power #33

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

3-0 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

PSU -9.5

✓ WIS W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 17–27 PSU

✗ PSU (78%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -11.5

ClosePSU -9.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -11.5

2 → WIS

ClosePSU -9.5

2 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -11.5 · closed PSU -9.5 · moved 2 toward WISmodel PSU -15.5

model PSU -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 48% (166 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (249 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -11.5

ClosePSU -9.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 24–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 10.8; 52 points a game (usually 53). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	29–20	L	O48.5
Close	MD vs MSU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-8	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	43–21	W	O45
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	PSU vs IOWA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	31–0	W	U38.5
Close	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	28–14	W	U51
Close	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–17	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LLW	1-2	33%	—	0-1
PSU WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
PSU UUO	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 370 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
PSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 0–1 PSU PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Penn State 28 @ Wisconsin 13	PSU -6.5	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+3.3 →+5.3▲ 2.0#46

PSU+12.7 →+16.5▲ 3.8#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WIS

Longer bar = better

PSU

#64

Offense

PSU better ▶

#21

#58

Defense

PSU better ▶

0.0 #77

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+1.7 #10

59 plays #121

Pace

PSU faster ▶

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	WIS off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #57	7.3 #3	PSU
Yards / play	6.60 #41	3.51 #6	PSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #63	−0.09 #22	PSU
Success rate	41% #93	28% #2	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	42.3 #22	20.0 #57	PSU
Yards / play	7.38 #14	4.74 #44	PSU
PPA / play	+0.43 #9	+0.05 #68	PSU
Success rate	48% #39	39% #62	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	7.7 #57	13.7 #30	21.3 #35	6.7 #73	6.3 #85	13.0 #75
PSU allowed	1.0 #10	2.0 #11	3.0 #2	0.0 #1	4.3 #40	4.3 #11

PSU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	11.3 #19	11.3 #44	22.7 #27	12.7 #6	7.0 #72	19.7 #20
WIS allowed	6.7 #103	2.0 #11	8.7 #42	5.7 #87	5.7 #66	11.3 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.