Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F9 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

2-2 · Power #69

final

Final

Wisconsin

3-1 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -8.5

✓ WIS W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 16–25 WIS

✓ WIS (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWIS -10

CloseWIS -8.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -10

1.5 → MSU

CloseWIS -8.5

1.5 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -10 · closed WIS -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward MSUmodel WIS -9.5

model WIS -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 51% (183 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (366 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWIS -10

CloseWIS -8.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as an 8.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WIS won 31–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 7.9; 45.2 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs NU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	28–21	P	O44.5
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	TULN vs ARMY 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	24–17	L	U44.5
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	41–3	W	O39.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	MINN vs PUR 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	27–20	L	U49.5
Very close	ASU vs HOU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–24	L	U47
Very close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	45–13	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU PWWL	2-1-1	67%	1-0	1-1
WIS LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2
WIS OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	7-2-1 78%	4-6 40%
WIS	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.6 →+2.3▲ 1.7#58

WIS+3.3 →+7.9▲ 4.6#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MSU

Longer bar = better

WIS

#103

Offense

WIS better ▶

#78

#82

Defense

WIS better ▶

#32

−1.0 #120

Turnovers

WIS better ▶

−0.5 #103

65 plays #88

Pace

◀ MSU faster

61 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	MSU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #109	20.0 #45	WIS
Yards / play	4.99 #120	4.44 #23	WIS
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	−0.01 #35	WIS
Success rate	44% #65	35% #25	WIS

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #66	21.3 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #57	5.51 #81	WIS
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.16 #99	Even
Success rate	40% #107	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.0 #93	8.3 #83	13.3 #91	4.3 #102	4.5 #109	8.8 #118
WIS allowed	5.8 #96	5.0 #33	10.8 #57	5.0 #74	4.3 #37	9.3 #51

WIS scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	5.8 #83	12.0 #39	17.8 #56	5.8 #81	8.3 #51	14.0 #66
MSU allowed	4.3 #67	9.5 #104	13.8 #96	2.5 #28	5.0 #49	7.5 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.