Navy @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Air Force

Weather at kickoff73°F11 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Navy

1-2 · Power #89

final

Final

Air Force

2-1 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -2.5

✓ AFA W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 25–28 AFA

✓ AFA (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAFA -1.5

CloseAFA -2.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -1.5

1 → AFA

CloseAFA -2.5

1 pt toward Air Force

Total

Open49.5

▼ 4

Close45.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -1.5 · closed AFA -2.5 · moved 1 toward AFAmodel AFA -4

model AFA -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (347 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (328 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAFA -1.5

CloseAFA -2.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 2.5-point home favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 14–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 3; 47.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	RICE vs ECU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–17	W	U47
Close	UNLV vs WYO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–14	W	U48.25
Close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Close	FRES vs CSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–22	W	O43.5
Close	BGSU vs M-OH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	12–28	L	O38.5
Close	ARMY vs BC 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–27	L	O47
Close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Close	JXST vs GASO 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–27	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	—
AFA WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
AFA UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
AFA	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NAVY 2–1 AFA NAVY leads · 3 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Air Force 31 @ Navy 34	NAVY -13.5	AFA W
Oct 5 2024	Navy 34 @ Air Force 7	NAVY -9.5	NAVY W
Oct 21 2023	Air Force 17 @ Navy 6	AFA -11	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−9.5 →−6.4▲ 3.1#96

AFA−15.2 →−9.7▲ 5.5#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NAVY

Longer bar = better

AFA

#53

Offense

Even

#52

#86

Defense

AFA better ▶

#59

−1.0 #118

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

+0.3 #52

70 plays #40

Pace

AFA faster ▶

76 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #72	23.7 #77	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #69	5.28 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #56	+0.02 #53	Even
Success rate	51% #16	36% #33	Even

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #52	25.7 #92	AFA
Yards / play	5.69 #89	5.35 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #32	+0.19 #113	AFA
Success rate	48% #35	39% #64	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.0 #57	9.0 #77	16.0 #76	7.0 #54	7.7 #64	14.7 #60
AFA allowed	5.7 #96	7.0 #66	12.7 #84	4.7 #70	4.3 #43	9.0 #50

AFA scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.3 #119	11.0 #53	14.3 #87	3.3 #118	13.3 #5	16.7 #38
NAVY allowed	4.7 #78	15.3 #137	20.0 #130	3.3 #45	2.3 #8	5.7 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.