UTEP @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-3 · Power #136

final

Final

New Mexico

3-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNM -23.5

✓ UNM W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 14–38 UNM

✓ UNM (96%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNM -21

CloseUNM -23.5

Total53.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -21

2.5 → UNM

CloseUNM -23.5

2.5 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open53.5

▼ 6

Close47.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -21 · closed UNM -23.5 · moved 2.5 toward UNMmodel UNM -25

model UNM -25

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 54% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (332 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNM -21

CloseUNM -23.5

Total53.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 23.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 61–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 26.3 against an average line of 23.2; 59.1 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs KENT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-25.5	45–10	W	O48.5
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Loose	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Loose	ISU vs BGSU 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-22.5	55–7	W	O43.5
Loose	ILL vs PUR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & situation	-22.5	50–49	L	O47
Loose	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Loose	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Loose	ILL vs CMU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-21	30–9	P	U50
Loose	LIB vs SHSU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-21	21–16	L	U46.5
Loose	JMU vs BALL 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-22	63–7	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-3
UNM WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
UNM UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 643 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
UNM	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−19.3▼ 3.4#134

UNM−4.8 →+0.4▲ 5.2#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UTEP

Longer bar = better

UNM

#130

Offense

UNM better ▶

#67

#129

Defense

UNM better ▶

#10

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

UNM better ▶

+3.5 #1

56 plays #136

Pace

UNM faster ▶

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	UTEP off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #127	11.5 #7	UNM
Yards / play	4.76 #130	4.38 #21	UNM
PPA / play	−0.13 #137	−0.17 #5	UNM
Success rate	37% #125	31% #7	UNM

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #26	36.5 #134	UNM
Yards / play	5.53 #99	6.05 #110	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #61	+0.31 #136	UNM
Success rate	42% #83	50% #135	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.5 #110	5.3 #120	8.8 #124	7.0 #51	3.0 #128	10.0 #107
UNM allowed	1.8 #10	2.5 #11	4.3 #4	1.8 #15	5.5 #64	7.3 #26

UNM scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.0 #57	15.3 #12	22.3 #25	12.5 #7	4.3 #113	16.8 #32
UTEP allowed	11.3 #135	7.3 #68	18.5 #125	13.0 #136	5.0 #48	18.0 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.