Oregon State @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UTEP

Weather at kickoff87°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

1-2 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-2 · Power #136

final

Closing spread

ORST -11.5

✓ ORST W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 33–23 UTEP

✓ ORST (78%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORST -12.5

CloseORST -11.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -12.5

1 → UTEP

CloseORST -11.5

1 pt toward UTEP

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -12.5 · closed ORST -11.5 · moved 1 toward UTEPmodel ORST -7

model ORST -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 50% (69 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (363 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORST -12.5

CloseORST -11.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as an 11.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 33–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 11.1; 62.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 6 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & spread	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	OHIO @ EMU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-12	28–21	L	U60.5
Close	TEM @ CLT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	49–14	W	O47.5
Close	FIU @ SHSU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	56–16	W	O50.5
Close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	55–7	W	O51
Close	WSU @ ORST 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	38–41	L	O56.5
Close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Close	MRSH @ USM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	37–3	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0
UTEP LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
UTEP UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UTEP	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST−8.0 →−5.8▲ 2.2#91

UTEP−15.9 →−16.9▼ 1.0#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ORST

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#68

Offense

◀ ORST better

#113

#93

Defense

◀ ORST better

#120

+1.0 #32

Turnovers

◀ ORST better

+0.3 #50

71 plays #33

Pace

◀ ORST faster

52 plays #138

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #64	37.7 #135	ORST
Yards / play	6.52 #42	5.49 #80	ORST
PPA / play	+0.21 #51	+0.29 #132	ORST
Success rate	39% #114	48% #132	Even

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #107	28.3 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #109	5.58 #86	ORST
PPA / play	−0.10 #132	+0.15 #98	ORST
Success rate	40% #104	41% #79	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	7.0 #56	9.3 #73	16.3 #76	9.0 #31	6.7 #83	15.7 #47
UTEP allowed	9.3 #124	8.7 #93	18.0 #120	15.0 #137	4.7 #43	19.7 #134

UTEP scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.7 #97	7.0 #96	11.7 #103	7.0 #56	4.0 #112	11.0 #98
ORST allowed	3.0 #39	9.0 #96	12.0 #72	7.0 #102	9.3 #121	16.3 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.