New Mexico @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New Mexico State

Weather at kickoff88°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

2-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

1-2 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

UNM -11.5

✓ UNM W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 30–18 NMSU

✓ UNM (81%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNM -12.5

CloseUNM -11.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -12.5

1 → NMSU

CloseUNM -11.5

1 pt toward New Mexico State

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -12.5 · closed UNM -11.5 · moved 1 toward NMSUmodel UNM -15

model UNM -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 49% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (357 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNM -12.5

CloseUNM -11.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as an 11.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 42–18; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 78%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 11.6; 54.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ SDSU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14	0–34	L	U47
Close	NAVY @ TLSA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	42–23	W	O52.5
Close	LIB @ FIU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	38–6	W	U53.5
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-10.5	15–30	L	O44.5
Close	CONN @ RICE 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	34–37	L	O48.5
Close	TOL @ BGSU 2025 · Week 7 · close	-10.5	23–28	L	O45.5
Close	NAVY @ RICE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-12.5	10–24	L	U49
Close	CONN @ DEL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	41–44	L	O52.5
Close	GT @ WAKE 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	30–29	L	O53.5
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2025 · Week 11 · close	-13.5	35–23	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
NMSU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
NMSU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 623 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
NMSU	2-8 20%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UNM 2–1 NMSU UNM leads · 3 games since 2023 · UNM has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	New Mexico State 20 @ New Mexico 38	UNM -17.5	UNM W
Sep 28 2024	New Mexico 50 @ New Mexico State 40	UNM -8.5	UNM W
Sep 16 2023	New Mexico State 27 @ New Mexico 17	UNM -2.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−4.8 →+1.0▲ 5.8#64

NMSU−18.2 →−14.8▲ 3.4#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNM

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#87

Offense

Even

#81

Defense

◀ UNM better

#93

+3.7 #1

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

0.0 #68

65 plays #81

Pace

Even

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #40	25.7 #93	UNM
Yards / play	5.15 #117	5.49 #89	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #93	+0.12 #94	Even
Success rate	41% #99	43% #97	Even

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	NMSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #85	9.3 #8	UNM
Yards / play	6.36 #59	3.75 #7	UNM
PPA / play	+0.10 #94	−0.23 #2	UNM
Success rate	42% #86	29% #5	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.7 #94	20.3 #3	25.0 #21	9.7 #23	3.3 #121	13.0 #74
NMSU allowed	6.3 #102	10.3 #113	16.7 #111	3.3 #43	5.7 #67	9.0 #51

NMSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.3 #102	10.0 #68	14.3 #90	5.3 #86	9.3 #31	14.7 #65
UNM allowed	2.3 #23	2.3 #16	4.7 #11	2.3 #23	2.3 #10	4.7 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.