Sam Houston @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Texas Tech

Weather at kickoff77°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

1-2 · Power #124

final

Final

Texas Tech

3-0 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -34.5

✓ TTU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 8–43 TTU

✓ TTU (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -37.5

CloseTTU -34.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -37.5

3 → SHSU

CloseTTU -34.5

3 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -37.5 · closed TTU -34.5 · moved 3 toward SHSUmodel TTU -33

model TTU -33

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (242 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -37.5

CloseTTU -34.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like TTU as a 34.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 49–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 63 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 58%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 31 against an average line of 35; 57.4 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	IU vs KENN 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-35.5	56–9	W	O51.5
Loose	CLEM vs TROY 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-30.25	27–16	L	U51.5
Loose	AUB vs MASS 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-35	59–14	W	O52
Loose	MICH vs UTEP 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-34.5	52–17	W	O48.5
Loose	TEX vs UTEP 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-39.5	27–10	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
TTU LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
TTU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 638 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
TTU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−20.4 →−13.2▲ 7.2#118

TTU+19.6 →+13.0▼ 6.6#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SHSU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#58

Offense

Even

#61

#28

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#71

+0.3 #62

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−0.3 #103

70 plays #37

Pace

Even

69 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #65	20.0 #59	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #50	5.43 #86	SHSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #71	+0.12 #95	SHSU
Success rate	47% #44	37% #43	Even

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	TTU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #68	15.7 #29	SHSU
Yards / play	6.00 #77	4.40 #26	SHSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #50	−0.01 #43	Even
Success rate	46% #49	31% #15	SHSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	8.0 #50	11.7 #44	19.7 #47	8.0 #45	4.7 #103	12.7 #78
TTU allowed	3.3 #46	5.7 #48	9.0 #49	5.7 #89	5.3 #61	11.0 #80

TTU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	4.7 #93	10.3 #52	15.0 #82	7.7 #56	9.3 #31	17.0 #35
SHSU allowed	2.3 #21	5.7 #48	8.0 #35	5.3 #87	2.3 #12	7.7 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.