Delaware @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Virginia

Weather at kickoff76°F12 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Delaware

2-1 · Power #113

final

Final

Virginia

2-1 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

UVA -19.5

✓ UVA W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

DEL 15–35 UVA

✓ UVA (92%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -20.5

CloseUVA -19.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -20.5

1 → DEL

CloseUVA -19.5

1 pt toward Delaware

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -20.5 · closed UVA -19.5 · moved 1 toward DELmodel UVA -20.5

model UVA -20.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 47% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (359 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -20.5

CloseUVA -19.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 19.5-point home favorite against DEL, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 42–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 19; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs ARST 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	31–7	W	U56.5
Very close	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17	26–21	L	O46.5
Very close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Close	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-18	30–27	L	O52
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Close	TULN vs RICE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-21.5	24–10	L	U53
Close	CAL vs SDSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	31–10	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEL WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0
UVA WWL	2-1	67%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: DEL away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEL UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
UVA UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UVA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEL−14.3 →−7.2▲ 7.1#99

UVA+7.4 →+9.0▲ 1.6#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DEL

Longer bar = better

UVA

#76

Offense

UVA better ▶

#40

#49

Defense

Even

#40

+0.7 #50

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+1.3 #14

68 plays #56

Pace

Even

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEL has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	DEL off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #79	16.3 #34	UVA
Yards / play	6.27 #64	4.50 #32	UVA
PPA / play	+0.14 #81	0.00 #45	UVA
Success rate	43% #78	38% #50	UVA

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #29	18.7 #52	UVA
Yards / play	6.17 #67	4.84 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #35	0.00 #47	Even
Success rate	51% #28	37% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

DEL scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	2.3 #122	15.3 #14	17.7 #61	4.7 #92	7.7 #66	12.3 #83
UVA allowed	2.3 #24	5.7 #47	8.0 #34	5.0 #81	3.3 #20	8.3 #45

UVA scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	15.0 #3	4.7 #122	19.7 #42	9.3 #26	11.0 #18	20.3 #16
DEL allowed	7.0 #108	2.3 #13	9.3 #46	9.3 #127	0.0 #1	9.3 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.