Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

2-1 · Power #126

final

Final

Jacksonville State

2-2 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -7

✓ JXST W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 21–29 JXST

✓ JXST (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJXST -9.5

CloseJXST -7

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -9.5

2.5 → MTSU

CloseJXST -7

2.5 pts toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -9.5 · closed JXST -7 · moved 2.5 toward MTSUmodel JXST -10

model JXST -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (207 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (250 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJXST -9.5

CloseJXST -7

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 7-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 23–13; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 7; 55.3 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs UAB 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	21–14	P	U55.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	33–17	W	U54.5
Close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Close	CONN vs FIU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-7	51–10	W	O52
Close	TROY vs UL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	35–23	W	O47.5
Close	KENN vs MOST 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	41–34	W	O54.5
Close	FIU vs BUFF 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	33–20	W	O47.5
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5
Close	DEL vs CCU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	22–14	W	U56.5
Close	USA vs ULM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	46–17	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
JXST LWLW	2-2	50%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
JXST UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	3-6 33%
JXST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MTSU 0–4 JXST JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2025	Jacksonville State 24 @ Middle Tennessee 21	JXST -4.5	MTSU W
Oct 23 2024	Middle Tennessee 20 @ Jacksonville State 42	JXST -20.5	JXST W
Oct 4 2023	Jacksonville State 45 @ Middle Tennessee 30	MTSU -2.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−15.1 →−16.1▼ 1.0#127

JXST−8.9 →−9.1▼ 0.2#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MTSU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#76

Offense

Even

#68

#69

Defense

Even

#75

+1.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ MTSU better

−0.3 #86

61 plays #109

Pace

Even

59 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #77	24.0 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #86	4.92 #56	JXST
PPA / play	+0.22 #54	+0.05 #65	Even
Success rate	42% #85	42% #96	Even

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #87	20.7 #61	MTSU
Yards / play	6.12 #70	5.24 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #60	+0.05 #66	Even
Success rate	46% #55	40% #71	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	9.3 #34	5.3 #118	14.7 #86	5.7 #82	10.0 #28	15.7 #47
JXST allowed	2.5 #32	13.0 #131	15.5 #105	3.3 #39	4.0 #31	7.3 #30

JXST scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.0 #59	10.3 #65	17.3 #64	5.3 #84	5.3 #102	10.5 #100
MTSU allowed	4.7 #73	5.7 #47	10.3 #53	4.7 #73	5.7 #67	10.3 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.