Northwestern @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

2-0 · Power #30

final

Final

Indiana

3-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -20.5

✓ NU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 14–36 IU

✓ IU (94%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -23.5

CloseIU -20.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -23.5

3 → NU

CloseIU -20.5

3 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -23.5 · closed IU -20.5 · moved 3 toward NUmodel IU -26

model IU -26

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (113 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (241 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -23.5

CloseIU -20.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 20.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 29–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.5 against an average line of 18.8; 48.1 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-18	30–27	L	O52
Close	MICH vs RUTG 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	31–7	P	U44
Close	OSU vs IOWA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-17	35–7	W	U46
Loose	PSU vs ILL 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & rest	-19.5	21–7	L	U48.5
Loose	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Loose	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	27–25	L	O50
Loose	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Loose	OSU vs MD 2023 · Week 6 · loose	-17	37–17	W	U57
Loose	USC vs FRES 2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-21.5	39–0	W	U51.5
Loose	MISS vs UK 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-15	17–20	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WW	2-0	100%	—	—
IU LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OO	2-0	100%	2-0
IU OUU	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 703 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	6-4 60%	7-2-1 78%	6-4 60%
IU	10-0 100%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 0–1 IU IU leads · 1 game since 2023 · IU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Indiana 41 @ Northwestern 24	IU -12.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU+2.4 →+3.3▲ 0.9#52

IU+23.3 →+23.9▲ 0.6#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

Even

#61

Defense

IU better ▶

+2.0 #7

Turnovers

◀ NU better

+0.7 #40

64 plays #94

Pace

◀ NU faster

58 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #44	5.3 #2	IU
Yards / play	7.19 #20	3.49 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #12	−0.16 #7	Even
Success rate	53% #10	30% #10	Even

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	48.3 #6	12.5 #20	Even
Yards / play	7.95 #6	5.20 #72	IU
PPA / play	+0.53 #4	+0.02 #55	IU
Success rate	52% #17	43% #98	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	10.5	11.5	22.0
IU allowed	0.0 #1	2.0 #9	2.0 #1	3.3 #43	0.0 #1	3.3 #8

IU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	11.3 #25	15.0 #18	26.3 #15	12.7 #7	9.3 #29	22.0 #12
NU allowed	0.0	3.0	3.0	6.5	3.0	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.