Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Temple · Conference game
Weather at kickoff73°F14 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›
1-1 · Power #78
21
▲ winner
Final
@
1-2 · Power #104
17
final
Closing spread
ARMY -4
Push
Total
48.5
▼ Under · 38 pts
Model before kickoff
ARMY 26–22 TEM
✓ ARMY (59%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenARMY -3
CloseARMY -4
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
1 pt toward Army
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARMY -3 · closed ARMY -4 · moved 1 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -0.5
Opened 49.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 1 downmodel 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 49% (151 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 61% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenARMY -3
CloseARMY -4
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 4-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 21–17; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 4.5; 48.1 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Close
2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread
-3.530–11 W U48
Close
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread
-6.2524–34 L O50.5
Close
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation
-5.513–23 L U45
Close
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total
-645–20 W O45.5
Close
2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings
-323–0 W U46
Close
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total
-221–17 W U46.5
Close
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread
-520–9 W U49.25
Close
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest
-430–49 L O51.5
Close
2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread
-3.548–20 W O54.5
Close
2025 · Week 11 · close
-6.56–38 L U48
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Army have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ARMY−10.8 →−3.8▲ 7.0#80
TEM−7.3 →−6.6▲ 0.7#94
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARMY
Longer bar = better
TEM
#13
Offense
◀ ARMY better
#74
#76
Defense
◀ ARMY better
#115
−0.5 #105
Turnovers
TEM better ▶
+0.3 #58
66 plays #76
Pace
◀ ARMY faster
63 plays #99
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ARMY has the ball
Advantage: ARMY offense
ARMY offTEM defEdge
Points / game 41.5 #25 30.0 #114 ARMY
Yards / play 7.54 #11 6.28 #115 ARMY
PPA / play +0.39 #12 +0.22 #119 ARMY
Success rate 56% #5 45% #113 ARMY
When TEM has the ball
Even matchup
TEM offARMY defEdge
Points / game 31.7 #70 15.5 #28 ARMY
Yards / play 5.73 #91 4.94 #58 ARMY
PPA / play +0.22 #55 +0.17 #112 TEM
Success rate 43% #80 44% #107 TEM

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
ARMY scoring against the TEM defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ARMY scored
10.5
12.0
22.5
7.0
12.0
19.0
TEM allowed
4.7
#71
8.0
#80
12.7
#82
5.7
#85
9.3
#108
15.0
#105
TEM scoring against the ARMY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TEM scored
6.7
#73
10.3
#51
17.0
#67
3.3
#107
9.3
#28
12.7
#75
ARMY allowed
3.5
1.5
5.0
3.5
7.0
10.5

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
TEM +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 14 mph
gusts 23 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
ARMY13d bye
TEM6d
ARMY +7 days
Tempo
Average 129 plays
slowavg 133fast

Schedules, links & other games

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