Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Temple · Conference game
Closing spread
ARMY -4
Push
Total
48.5
▼ Under · 38 pts
Model before kickoff
ARMY 26–22 TEM
✓ ARMY (59%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenARMY -3
CloseARMY -4
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARMY -3
1 → ARMY
CloseARMY -4
1 pt toward Army
Total
Open49.5
▼ 1
Close48.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARMY -3 · closed ARMY -4 · moved 1 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -0.5
model ARMY -0.5
Opened 49.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 1 downmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 49% (151 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 61% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenARMY -3
CloseARMY -4
Total49.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
ARMY as a 4-point road favorite at TEM, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: ARMY won 21–17; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 4.5; 48.1 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread |
-3.5 | 30–11 | W | U48 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread |
-6.25 | 24–34 | L | O50.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-5.5 | 13–23 | L | U45 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total |
-6 | 45–20 | W | O45.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3 | 23–0 | W | U46 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 21–17 | W | U46.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread |
-5 | 20–9 | W | U49.25 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest |
-4 | 30–49 | L | O51.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread |
-3.5 | 48–20 | W | O54.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 11 · close |
-6.5 | 6–38 | L | U48 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Army have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | |
| 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
ARMY 2–0 TEM
ARMY leads · 2 games since 2023 · ARMY has won the last 2 meetings
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 2025 | Temple 13 @ Army 14 | ARMY -7.5 | TEM W |
| Sep 26 2024 | Army 42 @ Temple 14 | ARMY -21.5 | ARMY W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ARMY−10.8 →−3.8▲ 7.0#80
TEM−7.3 →−6.6▲ 0.7#94
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3
Longer bar = better
#13
Offense
◀ ARMY better#74
#76
Defense
◀ ARMY better#115
−0.5 #105
Turnovers
TEM better ▶+0.3 #58
66 plays #76
Pace
◀ ARMY faster63 plays #99
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| ARMY off | TEM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 41.5 #25 | 30.0 #114 | ARMY |
| Yards / play | 7.54 #11 | 6.28 #115 | ARMY |
| PPA / play | +0.39 #12 | +0.22 #119 | ARMY |
| Success rate | 56% #5 | 45% #113 | ARMY |
| TEM off | ARMY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 31.7 #70 | 15.5 #28 | ARMY |
| Yards / play | 5.73 #91 | 4.94 #58 | ARMY |
| PPA / play | +0.22 #55 | +0.17 #112 | TEM |
| Success rate | 43% #80 | 44% #107 | TEM |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
ARMY scoring against the TEM defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10.5 | 12.0 | 22.5 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | |
4.7 #71 | 8.0 #80 | 12.7 #82 | 5.7 #85 | 9.3 #108 | 15.0 #105 |
TEM scoring against the ARMY defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.7 #73 | 10.3 #51 | 17.0 #67 | 3.3 #107 | 9.3 #28 | 12.7 #75 | |
3.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 10.5 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 14 mph
gusts 23 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
ARMY13d bye
TEM6d
ARMY +7 days
Tempo
Average 129 plays
slowavg 133fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

