Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UL Monroe

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

2-1 · Power #102

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

0-3 · Power #137

final

Closing spread

FAU -11.5

✓ FAU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 35–24 ULM

✓ FAU (78%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFAU -13.5

CloseFAU -11.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFAU -13.5

2 → ULM

CloseFAU -11.5

2 pts toward UL Monroe

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FAU -13.5 · closed FAU -11.5 · moved 2 toward ULMmodel FAU -8

model FAU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 49% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (253 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFAU -13.5

CloseFAU -11.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as an 11.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 10; 55.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UNT @ TEM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-11	24–17	L	U63.5
Close	JXST @ SHSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings	-7	29–27	L	O53.5
Close	FIU @ SHSU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	56–16	W	O50.5
Close	USU @ TEM 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	29–45	L	O53.5
Close	COLO @ CSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–9	W	U58.5
Close	WMU @ BALL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	45–42	L	O57.5
Close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	UTSA @ TLSA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	45–46	L	O52.5
Close	MRSH @ USM 2024 · Week 11 · close	-13.5	37–3	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LWW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
ULM LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: FAU away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OOU	2-1	67%	2-1
ULM OUO	2-1	67%	0-3

Went over in Q3. Of 505 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
ULM	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−10.2 →−9.5▲ 0.7#107

ULM−17.2 →−19.8▼ 2.6#135

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FAU

Longer bar = better

ULM

#104

Offense

Even

#109

Defense

◀ FAU better

#134

+1.0 #29

Turnovers

◀ FAU better

−0.3 #96

79 plays #3

Pace

◀ FAU faster

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: FAU offense

	FAU off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #95	42.0 #138	FAU
Yards / play	4.38 #135	7.04 #134	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #90	+0.25 #126	FAU
Success rate	41% #97	51% #137	FAU

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #108	35.3 #128	Even
Yards / play	4.96 #122	6.70 #128	Even
PPA / play	−0.15 #137	+0.15 #96	FAU
Success rate	44% #67	41% #82	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	8.0 #47	10.3 #61	18.3 #49	6.7 #69	0.0 #136	6.7 #131
ULM allowed	9.3 #123	15.7 #137	25.0 #136	5.7 #84	11.3 #133	17.0 #121

ULM scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	2.3 #126	8.7 #77	11.0 #107	6.7 #69	5.0 #105	11.7 #95
FAU allowed	8.0 #118	9.3 #102	17.3 #116	7.0 #101	11.0 #129	18.0 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.