UL Monroe @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UL Monroe

0-4 · Power #137

final

Final

South Alabama

2-2 · Power #101

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -12.5

✓ USA W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 22–36 USA

✓ USA (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSA -14.5

CloseUSA -12.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -14.5

2 → ULM

CloseUSA -12.5

2 pts toward UL Monroe

Total

Open55.5

▲ 2

Close57.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -14.5 · closed USA -12.5 · moved 2 toward ULMmodel USA -17

model USA -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 56% (122 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (260 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSA -14.5

CloseUSA -12.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 12.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 52–35; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 57.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 13.3; 63 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	DEL vs MTSU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	31–28	L	O55.5
Close	UTSA vs TEM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	51–27	W	O56
Close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	TROY vs GAST 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-9.5	31–19	W	U51
Close	USA vs CCU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–38	L	O51.5
Close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	43–46	L	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2
USA WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM OUOO	3-1	75%	0-4
USA UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 583 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
USA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ULM 0–3 USA USA leads · 3 games since 2023 · USA has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	South Alabama 26 @ UL Monroe 14	USA -4.5	USA W
Oct 26 2024	UL Monroe 17 @ South Alabama 46	USA -7.5	USA W
Oct 7 2023	South Alabama 55 @ UL Monroe 7	USA -10	USA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.2 →−21.8▼ 4.6#137

USA−9.6 →−8.6▲ 1.0#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ULM

Longer bar = better

USA

#114

Offense

USA better ▶

#82

#135

Defense

Even

#131

−0.3 #86

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+1.0 #30

67 plays #67

Pace

USA faster ▶

76 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #117	30.8 #120	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #117	7.48 #138	ULM
PPA / play	−0.08 #130	+0.29 #133	Even
Success rate	41% #93	48% #132	ULM

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #69	42.8 #138	USA
Yards / play	5.58 #97	6.84 #133	USA
PPA / play	+0.19 #64	+0.28 #132	USA
Success rate	41% #96	51% #137	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.5 #110	9.0 #74	12.5 #97	5.0 #95	3.8 #120	8.8 #121
USA allowed	5.3 #84	7.8 #76	13.0 #90	8.8 #128	9.0 #121	17.8 #127

USA scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	10.8 #18	8.5 #79	19.3 #42	6.0 #69	6.0 #90	12.0 #86
ULM allowed	8.8 #128	18.8 #138	27.5 #138	6.0 #90	9.3 #122	15.3 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.