Miami @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami

4-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

3-1 · Power #52

final

Closing spread

MIA -14

✓ MIA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 33–18 CLEM

✓ MIA (85%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -7

CloseMIA -14

Total55.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -7

7 → MIA

CloseMIA -14

7 pts toward Miami

Total

Open55.5

▼ 6

Close49.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -7 · closed MIA -14 · moved 7 toward MIAmodel MIA -17.5

model MIA -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 76%, covered 46% (76 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 68% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -7

CloseMIA -14

Total55.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like MIA as a 14-point road favorite at CLEM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 41–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 7 similar games. 54 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 7.

Favorite won

7 of 7100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.7 against an average line of 12.9; 50 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA @ WIS 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	42–10	W	O47.5
Loose	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Loose	OSU @ MICH 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	27–9	W	U43
Loose	IU @ IOWA 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	20–15	L	U47.5
Loose	ALA @ UK 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	49–21	W	O46.25
Loose	UTAH @ WVU 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13.5	48–14	W	O46.5
Loose	IU @ PSU 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	27–24	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	3-1
CLEM LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; CLEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OOUO	3-1	75%	4-0
CLEM OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 731 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
CLEM	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 1–0 CLEM MIA leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Clemson 20 @ Miami 28	CLEM -6	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+21.1 →+23.5▲ 2.4#6

CLEM+10.7 →+5.2▼ 5.5#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MIA

Longer bar = better

CLEM

Offense

◀ MIA better

#125

#21

Defense

◀ MIA better

#54

+0.5 #42

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.3 #92

69 plays #45

Pace

◀ MIA faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	51.8 #3	22.0 #64	MIA
Yards / play	8.53 #1	5.21 #67	MIA
PPA / play	+0.56 #1	−0.04 #24	MIA
Success rate	59% #2	39% #62	MIA

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	CLEM off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #120	9.0 #3	MIA
Yards / play	4.87 #123	3.99 #5	MIA
PPA / play	−0.04 #125	0.00 #41	MIA
Success rate	34% #133	36% #34	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	12.3 #9	21.8 #1	34.0 #1	14.0 #3	3.8 #122	17.8 #26
CLEM allowed	9.5 #129	6.0 #45	15.5 #109	4.0 #54	2.5 #5	6.5 #19

CLEM scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	3.3 #116	5.5 #114	8.8 #123	4.0 #110	8.3 #46	12.3 #81
MIA allowed	3.3 #36	0.8 #2	4.0 #4	1.5 #14	3.5 #22	5.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.