Stanford @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F11 mphDryWeather watch ›

Stanford

2-2 · Power #97

final

Final

Wake Forest

3-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

WAKE -14.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 18–32 WAKE

✓ WAKE (85%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -12.5

CloseWAKE -14.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -12.5

2 → WAKE

CloseWAKE -14.5

2 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -12.5 · closed WAKE -14.5 · moved 2 toward WAKEmodel WAKE -15

model WAKE -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 58% (143 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (325 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -12.5

CloseWAKE -14.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 14.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 57–3; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 54.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 49%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 14.9; 42.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15	24–21	L	U53.5
Very close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Very close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.5	21–14	L	U55
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Very close	FSU vs VT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	34–14	W	U55
Very close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Very close	JMU vs GASO 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-15	35–10	W	U54.5
Very close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	7–10	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	1-2
WAKE LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OOUO	3-1	75%	2-2
WAKE OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 698 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
WAKE	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

STAN 0–1 WAKE WAKE leads · 1 game since 2023 · WAKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Wake Forest 27 @ Stanford 24	WAKE -2.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−2.6 →−4.5▼ 1.9#84

WAKE+3.0 →+4.7▲ 1.7#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

STAN

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#90

Offense

WAKE better ▶

#47

#127

Defense

WAKE better ▶

#97

+1.0 #25

Turnovers

◀ STAN better

0.0 #68

67 plays #64

Pace

◀ STAN faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #119	28.0 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #94	5.25 #71	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.21 #52	+0.16 #98	STAN
Success rate	41% #94	45% #112	Even

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #67	33.5 #127	WAKE
Yards / play	6.59 #39	6.24 #121	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.29 #31	+0.29 #134	WAKE
Success rate	45% #51	46% #125	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.3 #98	5.0 #121	9.3 #123	6.5 #70	5.3 #104	11.8 #94
WAKE allowed	5.3 #86	9.3 #101	14.5 #105	4.0 #53	6.3 #78	10.3 #60

WAKE scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	6.8 #67	12.3 #35	19.0 #45	3.8 #111	5.0 #106	8.8 #117
STAN allowed	6.0 #101	11.3 #125	17.3 #116	7.0 #101	9.3 #120	16.3 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.