Wake Forest @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

4-1 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

NC State

3-2 · Power #68

final

Closing spread

WAKE -4

✓ WAKE W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 29–26 NCSU

✓ WAKE (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -4

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -2.5

1.5 → WAKE

CloseWAKE -4

1.5 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open60.5

▼ 4

Close56.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -2.5 · closed WAKE -4 · moved 1.5 toward WAKEmodel WAKE -2

model WAKE -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 47% (160 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (142 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -4

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 4-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 4.6; 55.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	31–17	W	U54.5
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Very close	FSU @ NCSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	11–21	L	U58.5
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	LOU @ NCSU 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	28–31	L	O56.5
Very close	JMU @ TXST 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	52–20	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-2
NCSU LWLLW	2-3	40%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: WAKE away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1
NCSU UOOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
NCSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WAKE 1–2 NCSU NCSU leads · 3 games since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 11 2025	NC State 34 @ Wake Forest 24	NCSU -7.5	NCSU W
Oct 5 2024	Wake Forest 34 @ NC State 30	NCSU -4.5	WAKE W
Nov 11 2023	NC State 26 @ Wake Forest 6	NCSU -1.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+3.0 →+7.9▲ 4.9#41

NCSU+6.0 →+3.9▼ 2.1#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WAKE

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#25

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#47

#72

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#105

0.0 #66

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #67

65 plays #82

Pace

NCSU faster ▶

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #37	25.6 #88	WAKE
Yards / play	6.83 #20	6.17 #116	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.33 #12	+0.19 #114	WAKE
Success rate	48% #31	44% #100	WAKE

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #35	23.0 #60	NCSU
Yards / play	6.35 #48	4.82 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #50	+0.14 #92	NCSU
Success rate	45% #56	43% #96	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	8.4 #42	12.6 #29	21.0 #28	5.8 #79	6.8 #75	12.6 #80
NCSU allowed	2.0 #16	6.2 #53	8.2 #25	7.0 #98	10.4 #130	17.4 #127

NCSU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	10.4 #18	11.0 #42	21.4 #26	9.4 #25	6.0 #94	15.4 #51
WAKE allowed	4.2 #63	8.0 #82	12.2 #77	3.2 #33	5.0 #45	8.2 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.