NC State @ Stanford: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Stanford · Conference game

Kickoff forecast59°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

NC State

3-3 · Power #61

projected

Stanford

3-4 · Power #97

projected

NCSU 70%

30% STAN

Spread

NCSU -7.5

no move since the open

Total

54.5

model 56.5

Spread edge

STAN by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNCSU -7.5

CurrentNCSU -7.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenNCSU -7.5

no move

NowNCSU -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Now54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -7.5 · unchangedmodel NCSU -6.5

model NCSU -6.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (176 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNCSU -7.5

CurrentNCSU -7.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:07

NC State at Stanford: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:15 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved toward Stanford since it opened. NC State visits Stanford, Friday at 10:30 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have NC State 61st and Stanford 97th. That’s about 9.5 points better than Stanford on a neutral field. Since the preseason, NC State has slipped from 43rd to 61st, while Stanford has slipped from 79th to 97th. Kickoff forecast at Stanford Stadium: 60 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. NC State comes off a bye. NC State has the better offense, 52nd to 105th. NC State has the better defense, 109th to 131st. NC State plays at the faster pace. Stanford is 1 and 4 against the spread as underdog. The model has NC State winning 31 to 25, a 68 percent chance. NC State is favored by 6.5, down from 7.5 at the open, through the key number 7, toward our model. The total is 55.5. Our model makes it NC State by 6.5, with a total near 56.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

Watch on YouTube ↗More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NCSU	STAN	Over	Under	NCSU	STAN
BetMGMMGM	-7.5-105	+7.5-112	55.5-110	55.5-108	-300	+250
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-7.5-110	+7.5-110	56-108	56-112	-300	+245
BetRiversBetRivers	-8-109	+8-114	55.5-112	55.5-112	-295	+225
BetUSBetUS	-7.5-105	+7.5-115	56-110	56-110	-300	+250
BovadaBovada	-7.5-110	+7.5-110	55.5-115	55.5-105	-300	+250
DraftKingsDK	-7.5-110	+7.5-110	54.5-110	54.5-110	-305	+245
FanDuelFD	-7.5-105	+7.5-115	55.5-105	55.5-115	-295	+235
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-7.5-106	+7.5-106	56-106	56-110	-300	+245
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-7.5-110	+7.5-110	55.5-110	55.5-110	-310	+240

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	NCSU	STAN	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-4.5-102	+4.5-118	32.5+170	32.5-225
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-167	+2.5+125	28.5-117	28.5-114
BetUSBetUS	-4.5-103	+4.5-117	27.5-111	27.5-109
DraftKingsDK	-3.5-120	+3.5+100	27.5-108	27.5-112
FanDuelFD	-4.5-104	+4.5-118	27.5-114	27.5-106

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

NCSU -7.5

STAN +7.5

Bets67% 33%

Money80% 20%

Money is 13 pts ahead of bets on NCSU -7.5

Winner

NCSU

STAN

Bets90% 10%

Money97% 3%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 7.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 7; 57.4 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	COLO @ CSU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	28–9	W	U58.5
Very close	WVU @ BAY 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-8.5	34–31	L	O54
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Very close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Very close	USA @ GAST 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	38–31	W	O54
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	RICE @ UAB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	14–40	L	O52.25
Close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Close	ASU @ ARIZ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	49–7	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU WLLWL	2-4	33%	0-2	1-1
STAN LWLLL	2-5	29%	2-2	1-4

Venue/role: NCSU away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3
STAN UOOOU	5-2	71%	3-4

In 1469 games with totals 50.5–58.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
STAN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs CAL	W24–23WO
Nov 7	vs DUKE	L33–45LO
Nov 14	vs SYR	L17–24LU

Stanford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ LOU	W38–35WO
Nov 14	@ VT	L7–31LU
Nov 21	@ CAL	W31–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NCSU 1–0 STAN NCSU leads · 1 game since 2024 · NCSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Stanford 28 @ NC State 59	NCSU -9.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+6.0 →+1.9▼ 4.1#62

STAN−2.6 →−7.7▼ 5.1#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NCSU

Longer bar = better

STAN

#52

Offense

◀ NCSU better

#105

#109

Defense

◀ NCSU better

#131

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #73

71 plays #21

Pace

◀ NCSU faster

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #44	36.6 #133	NCSU
Yards / play	6.00 #58	6.50 #128	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.31 #137	NCSU
Success rate	44% #58	47% #124	NCSU

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #127	27.7 #104	NCSU
Yards / play	5.33 #111	6.06 #112	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #69	+0.21 #115	STAN
Success rate	39% #114	44% #106	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.8 #18	10.3 #45	20.2 #25	7.8 #31	5.0 #114	12.8 #79
STAN allowed	7.6 #122	11.7 #126	19.3 #131	7.0 #105	10.3 #133	17.3 #128

STAN scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.4 #125	5.3 #118	7.7 #129	6.7 #53	3.9 #125	10.6 #101
NCSU allowed	2.8 #19	5.7 #37	8.5 #30	9.3 #133	9.8 #131	19.2 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.