Duke @ NC State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at NC State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast58°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Duke

4-2 · Power #43

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

NC State

3-3 · Power #61

projected

DUKE 56%

44% NCSU

Spread

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Total

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model 53.5

Model line

DUKE -2

DUKE 56% to win

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Winner

Market

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Spread

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Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WWWLL	4-2	67%	1-1	—
NCSU WLLWL	2-4	33%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DUKE away; NCSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUOOU	3-3	50%	4-2
NCSU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NCSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Duke

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ MIA	L31–53LO
Nov 20	vs CLEM	W46–45WO
Nov 28	@ WAKE	W49–32WO

NC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs SYR	L17–24LU
Nov 21	@ FSU	W21–11WU
Nov 28	@ UNC	W42–19WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

DUKE 3–0 NCSU DUKE leads · 3 games since 2023 · DUKE has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	NC State 33 @ Duke 45	DUKE -3.5	DUKE W
Nov 9 2024	Duke 29 @ NC State 19	NCSU -3.5	DUKE W
Oct 14 2023	NC State 3 @ Duke 24	DUKE -3.5	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+3.8 →+6.4▲ 2.6#41

NCSU+6.0 →+2.0▼ 4.0#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DUKE

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#52

Offense

Even

#52

#45

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#109

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−0.2 #84

71 plays #28

Pace

Even

71 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #54	27.7 #104	DUKE
Yards / play	6.26 #49	6.06 #112	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.23 #32	+0.21 #115	DUKE
Success rate	43% #72	44% #106	DUKE

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #44	16.0 #18	DUKE
Yards / play	6.00 #58	4.97 #37	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.07 #61	Even
Success rate	44% #58	41% #63	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.7 #93	12.0 #25	16.7 #55	7.0 #43	8.0 #49	15.0 #40
NCSU allowed	2.8 #19	5.7 #37	8.5 #30	9.3 #133	9.8 #131	19.2 #135

NCSU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.8 #18	10.3 #45	20.2 #25	7.8 #31	5.0 #114	12.8 #79
DUKE allowed	5.7 #89	5.8 #45	11.5 #64	1.7 #7	2.8 #6	4.5 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.