Buffalo @ Miami (OH): Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Kickoff forecast47°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

4-3 · Power #125

projected

Tue 7:00 PM ET

Miami (OH)

4-3 · Power #106

projected

BUFF 25%

75% M-OH

Spread

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Total

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model 46

Model line

M-OH -9.5

M-OH 75% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LLWWW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
M-OH WWLLW	4-3	57%	3-1	—

Venue/role: BUFF away; M-OH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOUUU	3-4	43%	4-3
M-OH OUOUO	5-2	71%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
M-OH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ BALL	W51–48LO
Nov 18	vs CMU	L19–38LO
Nov 27	@ AKR	L16–24LU

Miami (OH)

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	vs OHIO	L20–24LU
Nov 17	@ KENT	W34–7LU
Nov 24	@ WMU	L13–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BUFF 9–17 M-OH M-OH leads · 26 games since 1999 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2025	Miami (OH) 37 @ Buffalo 20	M-OH -2.5	M-OH W
Nov 15 2023	Buffalo 10 @ Miami (OH) 23	M-OH -7.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.9 →−15.5▼ 2.6#125

M-OH−6.3 →−9.6▼ 3.3#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BUFF

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#124

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#70

#72

Defense

Even

#85

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

+0.4 #41

75 plays #7

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

57 plays #138

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BUFF off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #111	25.6 #86	M-OH
Yards / play	4.35 #136	5.83 #98	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.11 #82	M-OH
Success rate	35% #132	41% #72	M-OH

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #84	25.6 #87	Even
Yards / play	6.33 #44	5.79 #95	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.18 #56	+0.08 #68	Even
Success rate	41% #94	38% #39	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	3.1 #118	7.6 #93	10.7 #110	3.6 #123	6.1 #91	9.7 #115
M-OH allowed	8.0 #125	3.3 #12	11.3 #56	8.0 #119	6.3 #69	14.3 #114

M-OH scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.0 #50	12.3 #20	19.3 #30	3.7 #121	3.9 #125	7.6 #132
BUFF allowed	8.4 #129	6.4 #59	14.9 #103	4.3 #54	6.4 #77	10.7 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.