Nebraska @ Illinois: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Illinois · Conference game

Kickoff forecast68°F13 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Nebraska

5-2 · Power #13

projected

Fri 8:00 PM ET

Illinois

3-3 · Power #53

projected

NEB 76%

24% ILL

Spread

—

Total

—

model 52.5

Model line

NEB -9.5

NEB 76% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB LWWWW	6-1	86%	2-0	—
ILL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: NEB away; ILL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB UUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2
ILL OOOUO	5-1	83%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ILL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nebraska

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ RUTG	W14–7WU
Nov 21	vs OSU	L17–21WU
Nov 27	@ IOWA	L16–40LO

Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ UCLA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs IOWA	L13–15WU
Nov 28	@ NU	W20–13PU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NEB 14–7 ILL (1 tied) NEB leads · 22 games since 1892 · ILL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2024	Illinois 31 @ Nebraska 24	NEB -9.5	ILL W
Oct 6 2023	Nebraska 20 @ Illinois 7	ILL -3.5	NEB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+6.6 →+15.6▲ 9.0#13

ILL+7.7 →+3.9▼ 3.8#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NEB

Longer bar = better

ILL

#44

Offense

Even

#32

#12

Defense

◀ NEB better

#115

+0.9 #13

Turnovers

◀ NEB better

−0.2 #88

72 plays #12

Pace

◀ NEB faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #32	27.8 #106	NEB
Yards / play	5.97 #60	5.82 #97	NEB
PPA / play	+0.24 #26	+0.30 #136	NEB
Success rate	44% #57	46% #122	NEB

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #51	15.4 #15	NEB
Yards / play	6.52 #31	4.55 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #29	−0.06 #12	Even
Success rate	49% #16	34% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	8.4 #32	10.9 #36	19.3 #30	4.0 #115	12.3 #2	16.3 #28
ILL allowed	5.7 #89	9.7 #110	15.3 #107	3.8 #41	7.7 #98	11.5 #73

ILL scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	9.2 #23	9.7 #56	18.8 #37	2.7 #129	9.2 #25	11.8 #90
NEB allowed	4.6 #67	2.4 #5	7.0 #12	2.7 #26	5.7 #60	8.4 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.