Illinois @ Maryland: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Maryland · Conference game

Kickoff forecast68°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Illinois

3-3 · Power #53

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Maryland

2-5 · Power #72

projected

ILL 56%

44% MD

Spread

—

Total

—

model 57

Model line

ILL -2

ILL 56% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
MD LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	—

Venue/role: ILL away; MD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OOOUO	5-1	83%	3-3
MD OOOOO	6-1	86%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
MD	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs NEB	W31–24WO
Nov 13	@ UCLA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs IOWA	L13–15WU

Maryland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ PUR	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs WIS	W27–10WU
Nov 21	@ USC	W29–28WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ILL 2–0 MD ILL leads · 2 games since 2023 · ILL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Maryland 6 @ Illinois 24	ILL -15.5	ILL W
Oct 14 2023	Illinois 27 @ Maryland 24	MD -13.5	ILL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+7.7 →+4.0▼ 3.7#53

MD+0.7 →−0.7▼ 1.4#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ILL

Longer bar = better

#32

Offense

◀ ILL better

#96

#115

Defense

Even

#108

−0.2 #88

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+0.4 #45

62 plays #113

Pace

MD faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #51	33.3 #129	ILL
Yards / play	6.52 #31	5.60 #82	ILL
PPA / play	+0.24 #29	+0.15 #104	ILL
Success rate	49% #16	45% #117	ILL

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	27.8 #106	MD
Yards / play	5.55 #93	5.82 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.30 #136	MD
Success rate	39% #110	46% #122	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	9.2 #22	9.7 #56	18.8 #37	2.7 #129	9.2 #25	11.8 #90
MD allowed	6.0 #100	12.0 #129	18.0 #126	7.6 #112	7.7 #99	15.3 #122

MD scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	7.1 #48	10.6 #40	17.7 #42	5.9 #76	4.7 #117	10.6 #101
ILL allowed	5.7 #89	9.7 #110	15.3 #107	3.8 #41	7.7 #98	11.5 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.