Sam Houston @ Missouri State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Missouri State · Conference game

Sam Houston

1-6 · Power #124

projected

Tue 8:00 PM ET

Missouri State

2-5 · Power #130

projected

SHSU 47%

53% MOST

Spread

—

Total

—

model 54

Model line

MOST -1

MOST 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

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Prices

FanDuel · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	SHSU	MOST	Over	Under	SHSU	MOST
FanDuelFD	+6.5-120	-6.5-102	51.5-110	51.5-110	+180	-220

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WLLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
MOST LWLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	—

Venue/role: SHSU away; MOST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OOUUO	3-4	43%	1-6
MOST OUUUO	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MOST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Sam Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ JXST	L27–29WO
Nov 14	vs KENN	W23–17LU
Nov 21	vs MTSU	L17–31LU

Missouri State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ FIU	W28–21WU
Nov 14	vs NMSU	W24–17WU
Nov 21	@ JXST	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−20.4 →−15.4▲ 5.0#124

MOST−11.7 →−17.3▼ 5.6#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SHSU

Longer bar = better

MOST

#123

Offense

MOST better ▶

#86

#63

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#127

+0.1 #68

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−0.3 #93

64 plays #97

Pace

Even

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #121	34.9 #131	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #116	6.11 #114	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #126	+0.27 #130	Even
Success rate	37% #127	49% #134	Even

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	MOST off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #94	25.3 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #74	5.18 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.07 #62	SHSU
Success rate	42% #80	40% #54	SHSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.4 #94	8.3 #82	12.7 #93	4.4 #108	3.0 #136	7.4 #133
MOST allowed	5.3 #83	9.3 #107	14.6 #99	9.9 #137	10.4 #135	20.3 #136

MOST scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	7.3 #46	6.1 #111	13.4 #90	7.1 #40	3.9 #125	11.0 #95
SHSU allowed	4.0 #46	7.9 #80	11.9 #67	8.0 #119	5.4 #48	13.4 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.