Missouri State @ Jacksonville State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Missouri State

2-5 · Power #130

projected

Sat 2:00 PM ET

Jacksonville State

5-2 · Power #99

projected

MOST 19%

81% JXST

Spread

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Total

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model 56

Model line

JXST -12.5

JXST 81% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LWLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	—
JXST LWWLP	3-3-1	50%	3-0-1	—

Venue/role: MOST away; JXST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST OUUUO	3-4	43%	2-5
JXST OOUOO	5-2	71%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
JXST	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Missouri State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs LIB	W21–17WU

Jacksonville State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ DEL	W38–25WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−11.7 →−17.3▼ 5.6#130

JXST−8.9 →−8.2▲ 0.7#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MOST

Longer bar = better

JXST

#86

Offense

JXST better ▶

#55

#127

Defense

JXST better ▶

#69

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

◀ MOST better

−0.6 #110

63 plays #103

Pace

◀ MOST faster

61 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Even matchup

	MOST off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #94	22.7 #59	JXST
Yards / play	5.81 #74	5.29 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.10 #74	JXST
Success rate	42% #80	42% #84	Even

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #82	34.9 #131	JXST
Yards / play	6.36 #42	6.11 #114	JXST
PPA / play	+0.18 #59	+0.27 #130	JXST
Success rate	47% #38	49% #134	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	7.3 #46	6.1 #111	13.4 #90	7.1 #40	3.9 #125	11.0 #95
JXST allowed	2.9 #22	11.7 #126	14.6 #99	4.7 #70	2.7 #5	7.4 #17

JXST scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.4 #62	9.3 #63	15.7 #64	6.4 #60	4.7 #117	11.1 #94
MOST allowed	5.3 #83	9.3 #107	14.6 #99	9.9 #137	10.4 #135	20.3 #136

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.