New Mexico State @ Missouri State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Missouri State · Conference game

New Mexico State

3-4 · Power #119

projected

Sat 3:00 PM ET

Missouri State

2-5 · Power #130

projected

NMSU 53%

47% MOST

Spread

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Total

—

model 53.5

Model line

NMSU -1

NMSU 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—
MOST LWLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NMSU away; MOST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UOUUO	3-4	43%	3-4
MOST OUUUO	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
MOST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs DEL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ MTSU	L24–31

Missouri State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ JXST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	vs LIB	W21–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 0–1 MOST MOST leads · 1 game since 2023 · MOST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2025	Missouri State 24 @ New Mexico State 17	MOST -2.5	MOST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−18.2 →−13.2▲ 5.0#118

MOST−11.7 →−17.3▼ 5.6#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NMSU

Longer bar = better

MOST

#105

Offense

MOST better ▶

#86

#57

Defense

◀ NMSU better

#127

−0.7 #120

Turnovers

MOST better ▶

−0.3 #93

65 plays #81

Pace

◀ NMSU faster

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #93	34.9 #131	NMSU
Yards / play	5.72 #83	6.11 #114	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.04 #128	+0.27 #130	Even
Success rate	39% #115	49% #134	Even

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	MOST off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #94	25.4 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #74	5.11 #50	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.05 #50	NMSU
Success rate	42% #80	39% #48	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.7 #122	9.1 #70	11.9 #101	5.6 #85	7.1 #61	12.7 #82
MOST allowed	5.3 #83	9.3 #107	14.6 #99	9.9 #137	10.4 #135	20.3 #136

MOST scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	7.3 #46	6.1 #111	13.4 #90	7.1 #40	3.9 #125	11.0 #95
NMSU allowed	7.1 #116	5.7 #41	12.9 #80	7.3 #108	5.3 #45	12.6 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.