New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

New Mexico State

3-4 · Power #119

projected

Sat 2:00 PM ET

Middle Tennessee

4-3 · Power #126

projected

NMSU 49%

51% MTSU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 49

Model line

MTSU -0.5

MTSU 51% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—
MTSU WLLWW	5-2	71%	3-0	—

Venue/role: NMSU away; MTSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UOUUO	3-4	43%	3-4
MTSU UUOOO	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico State

No more games this season.

Middle Tennessee

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NMSU 2–1 MTSU NMSU leads · 3 games since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Middle Tennessee 31 @ New Mexico State 24	—	—
Nov 23 2024	New Mexico State 36 @ Middle Tennessee 21	MTSU -3.5	NMSU W
Nov 4 2023	Middle Tennessee 7 @ New Mexico State 13	NMSU -3	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−18.2 →−13.2▲ 5.0#118

MTSU−15.1 →−15.7▼ 0.6#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NMSU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#105

Offense

MTSU better ▶

#84

#57

Defense

◀ NMSU better

#113

−0.7 #120

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

+0.7 #24

65 plays #81

Pace

◀ NMSU faster

58 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #93	27.6 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.72 #83	6.43 #127	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.04 #128	+0.15 #102	MTSU
Success rate	39% #115	46% #120	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	MTSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #105	25.4 #81	NMSU
Yards / play	5.83 #72	5.11 #50	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	+0.05 #50	Even
Success rate	41% #93	39% #48	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.7 #122	9.1 #70	11.9 #101	5.6 #85	7.1 #61	12.7 #82
MTSU allowed	4.4 #59	7.7 #75	12.1 #74	7.6 #112	7.9 #108	15.4 #123

MTSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.7 #81	5.1 #120	10.9 #107	6.7 #52	5.7 #101	12.4 #86
NMSU allowed	7.1 #116	5.7 #41	12.9 #80	7.3 #108	5.3 #45	12.6 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.