Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game
1-6 · Power #117
24
projected
@
3-4 · Power #115
27
projected
KENN 40%
60% WKU
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 51.5
Model line
WKU -3.5
WKU 60% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Western Kentucky 60%
Projected KENN 24 – WKU 27 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
WKU -3.5
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 51.5
How the model gets there (points from WKU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadWKU rating edge+0.6+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.6=Model marginWKU by 3.7
TotalScoring ratings51.5=Model total51.5

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
KENN−10.4 →−12.6▼ 2.2#117
WKU−7.3 →−12.0▼ 4.7#114
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

KENN
Longer bar = better
WKU
#93
Offense
◀ KENN better
#123
#97
Defense
Even
#92
0.0 #81
Turnovers
◀ KENN better
−0.4 #100
66 plays #76
Pace
WKU faster ▶
72 plays #11
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When KENN has the ball
Even matchup
KENN offWKU defEdge
Points / game 20.0 #123 30.6 #116 Even
Yards / play 5.48 #99 6.03 #111 Even
PPA / play +0.11 #87 +0.12 #86 Even
Success rate 43% #64 40% #53 Even
When WKU has the ball
Advantage: KENN defense
WKU offKENN defEdge
Points / game 21.3 #114 25.0 #78 KENN
Yards / play 4.88 #129 5.80 #96 KENN
PPA / play +0.01 #117 +0.15 #103 Even
Success rate 36% #130 45% #112 Even

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
KENN scoring against the WKU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
KENN scored
4.0
#98
7.3
#96
11.3
#103
5.1
#92
3.6
#133
8.7
#127
WKU allowed
6.3
#102
9.9
#115
16.1
#112
9.4
#134
5.0
#41
14.4
#116
WKU scoring against the KENN defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
WKU scored
3.9
#104
7.7
#92
11.6
#102
3.9
#116
5.9
#96
9.7
#115
KENN allowed
5.0
#75
6.9
#66
11.9
#67
7.6
#112
5.6
#53
13.1
#97

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
WKU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
KENN7d
WKU7d
Even
Tempo
Average 138 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.