Massachusetts @ Bowling Green: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Massachusetts

4-3 · Power #123

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Bowling Green

2-5 · Power #129

projected

MASS 48%

52% BGSU

Spread

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Total

—

model 45

Model line

BGSU -1

BGSU 52% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	—
BGSU LWWWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MASS away; BGSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UUOUU	2-5	29%	4-3
BGSU OUOOO	5-2	71%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BGSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Massachusetts

No more games this season.

Bowling Green

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MASS 0–5 BGSU BGSU leads · 5 games since 2012 · BGSU has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2025	Bowling Green 45 @ Massachusetts 14	BGSU -14	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−25.4 →−14.4▲ 11.0#122

BGSU−12.7 →−16.4▼ 3.7#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MASS

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#70

Offense

◀ MASS better

#120

#27

Defense

◀ MASS better

#116

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

−0.1 #83

58 plays #133

Pace

Even

58 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #78	29.6 #114	MASS
Yards / play	5.86 #69	6.28 #120	MASS
PPA / play	+0.16 #62	+0.16 #105	MASS
Success rate	43% #70	47% #125	MASS

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	BGSU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #129	19.1 #33	MASS
Yards / play	4.84 #131	4.58 #14	MASS
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	−0.04 #15	MASS
Success rate	40% #99	39% #47	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	8.3 #34	7.9 #89	16.1 #60	5.7 #81	6.1 #91	11.9 #89
BGSU allowed	6.9 #112	8.3 #84	15.1 #104	2.9 #29	10.4 #135	13.3 #99

BGSU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	1.4 #136	6.7 #102	8.1 #127	1.4 #136	7.4 #58	8.9 #124
MASS allowed	5.4 #87	2.6 #6	8.0 #21	3.9 #45	6.3 #69	10.1 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.