Bowling Green @ Toledo: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Fri, Nov 20, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Toledo · Conference game

Bowling Green

2-5 · Power #129

projected

Fri 7:30 PM ET

Toledo

5-2 · Power #75

projected

BGSU 10%

90% TOL

Spread

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Total

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model 49.5

Model line

TOL -18

TOL 90% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LWWWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
TOL LWLLW	3-3-1	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BGSU away; TOL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU OUOOO	5-2	71%	2-5
TOL OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TOL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bowling Green

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs MASS	W45–14WO

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ OHIO	L7–24LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BGSU 30–33 TOL (1 tied) TOL leads · 64 games since 1962 · BGSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Toledo 23 @ Bowling Green 28	TOL -10.5	BGSU W
Oct 26 2024	Bowling Green 41 @ Toledo 26	TOL -1.5	BGSU W
Nov 14 2023	Toledo 32 @ Bowling Green 31	TOL -9.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−12.7 →−16.4▼ 3.7#129

TOL+1.0 →−2.4▼ 3.4#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BGSU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#120

Offense

TOL better ▶

#34

#116

Defense

TOL better ▶

#28

−0.1 #83

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #80

58 plays #134

Pace

TOL faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BGSU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #129	23.6 #67	TOL
Yards / play	4.84 #131	4.58 #15	TOL
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	−0.01 #23	TOL
Success rate	40% #99	34% #6	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #27	29.6 #114	TOL
Yards / play	6.69 #20	6.28 #120	TOL
PPA / play	+0.24 #30	+0.16 #105	TOL
Success rate	44% #59	47% #125	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	1.4 #136	6.7 #102	8.1 #127	1.4 #136	7.4 #57	8.9 #124
TOL allowed	5.6 #87	5.7 #41	11.3 #56	3.7 #40	7.7 #99	11.4 #71

TOL scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.3 #70	10.7 #37	17.0 #51	8.9 #16	9.4 #22	18.3 #14
BGSU allowed	6.9 #112	8.3 #85	15.1 #104	2.9 #29	10.4 #135	13.3 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.