Massachusetts @ Toledo: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Wed, Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Toledo · Conference game

Massachusetts

4-4 · Power #123

projected

Wed 12:00 AM ET

Toledo

5-2 · Power #75

projected

MASS 12%

88% TOL

Spread

—

Total

—

model 50

Model line

TOL -16.5

TOL 88% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS WLWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	—
TOL LWLLW	3-3-1	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MASS away; TOL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UOUUU	2-6	25%	4-4
TOL OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
TOL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Massachusetts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs AKR	L10–44LO
Nov 28	@ BGSU	L14–45LO

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs BGSU	L23–28LO
Nov 27	@ OHIO	L7–24LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MASS 0–2 TOL TOL leads · 2 games since 2023 · TOL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Massachusetts 23 @ Toledo 38	TOL -17.5	MASS W
Oct 7 2023	Toledo 41 @ Massachusetts 24	TOL -19.5	MASS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−25.4 →−14.8▲ 10.6#123

TOL+1.0 →−2.4▼ 3.4#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MASS

Longer bar = better

TOL

#77

Offense

TOL better ▶

#34

#33

Defense

Even

#28

+0.9 #12

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

0.0 #80

59 plays #130

Pace

TOL faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	MASS off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #87	23.6 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #87	4.58 #15	TOL
PPA / play	+0.16 #62	−0.01 #23	TOL
Success rate	43% #70	34% #6	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #27	21.1 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #20	4.84 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #30	−0.04 #15	Even
Success rate	44% #59	39% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	7.6 #42	6.9 #100	14.5 #79	5.0 #95	7.0 #65	12.0 #88
TOL allowed	5.6 #87	5.7 #41	11.3 #56	3.7 #40	7.7 #99	11.4 #71

TOL scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.3 #70	10.7 #37	17.0 #51	8.9 #16	9.4 #22	18.3 #14
MASS allowed	5.6 #88	4.0 #19	9.6 #43	4.3 #53	6.4 #76	10.6 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.