Memphis @ South Florida: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at South Florida · Conference game

Memphis

6-2 · Power #62

projected

Thu 8:00 PM ET

South Florida

5-2 · Power #76

projected

MEM 55%

45% USF

Spread

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Total

—

model 53.5

Model line

MEM -2

MEM 55% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM LWWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	—
USF WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MEM away; USF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OOUUO	5-3	63%	6-2
USF OUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
USF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Memphis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ NAVY	L17–28LU
Nov 27	vs TEM	W45–21WO

South Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ FAU	W48–13WU
Nov 27	vs TULN	L10–45LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MEM 10–4 USF MEM leads · 14 games since 2001 · MEM has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	South Florida 31 @ Memphis 34	USF -3.5	MEM W
Oct 12 2024	Memphis 21 @ South Florida 3	MEM -10.5	MEM W
Nov 4 2023	South Florida 50 @ Memphis 59	MEM -13.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+1.4 →+2.0▲ 0.6#61

USF+8.1 →−2.8▼ 10.9#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MEM

Longer bar = better

USF

#26

Offense

◀ MEM better

#75

#66

Defense

USF better ▶

#46

+0.5 #38

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #46

71 plays #22

Pace

◀ MEM faster

59 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	36.1 #28	15.1 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.17 #8	5.07 #47	MEM
PPA / play	+0.19 #49	+0.01 #37	Even
Success rate	49% #19	42% #87	MEM

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #86	23.8 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #100	5.85 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.07 #57	MEM
Success rate	47% #37	38% #36	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	5.1 #90	9.8 #52	14.9 #73	11.3 #7	9.1 #28	20.4 #7
USF allowed	2.7 #17	5.7 #41	8.4 #28	1.9 #10	4.9 #37	6.7 #11

USF scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.9 #76	4.3 #131	10.1 #115	5.0 #95	11.4 #6	16.4 #27
MEM allowed	2.9 #28	10.5 #122	13.4 #90	5.5 #82	4.9 #40	10.4 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.