North Texas @ UTSA: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at UTSA · Conference game

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North Texas

4-2 · Power #54

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

UTSA

6-1 · Power #71

projected

UNT 56%

44% UTSA

Spread

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Total

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model 65.5

Model line

UNT -2

UNT 56% to win

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Winner

Market

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Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WLWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	—
UTSA WLLWL	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: UNT away; UTSA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UOOOO	5-1	83%	4-2
UTSA UOUOO	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
UTSA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ TULN	L21–34LU
Nov 28	vs UAB	W53–24WO

UTSA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ UAB	W41–20WU
Nov 28	vs TLSA	L45–46LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UNT 1–2 UTSA UTSA leads · 3 games since 2023 · UNT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	UTSA 17 @ North Texas 55	UNT -3.5	UNT W
Nov 15 2024	North Texas 27 @ UTSA 48	UTSA -1.5	UTSA W
Nov 4 2023	UTSA 37 @ North Texas 29	UTSA -8	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT+4.5 →+4.6▲ 0.1#52

UTSA+0.4 →−0.2▼ 0.6#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UNT

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#10

Offense

◀ UNT better

#46

#99

Defense

UTSA better ▶

#84

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

UTSA better ▶

+0.6 #30

73 plays #8

Pace

◀ UNT faster

67 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #4	27.0 #99	UNT
Yards / play	7.30 #5	5.61 #82	UNT
PPA / play	+0.36 #4	+0.10 #77	UNT
Success rate	48% #28	42% #78	UNT

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #49	29.2 #113	UTSA
Yards / play	6.15 #52	5.52 #77	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.22 #38	+0.15 #101	UTSA
Success rate	46% #43	44% #105	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	7.8 #40	15.3 #3	23.2 #12	11.0 #8	6.8 #70	17.8 #19
UTSA allowed	7.4 #120	8.0 #80	15.4 #108	3.3 #34	8.3 #115	11.6 #74

UTSA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.3 #46	10.3 #47	17.6 #44	4.7 #104	10.0 #14	14.7 #47
UNT allowed	7.5 #121	8.5 #90	16.0 #111	4.0 #49	8.2 #114	12.2 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.